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基于模式模拟的台风“竹节草”影响江都暴雨特征和机制研究

Study of the characteristics and causes of rainstorm in Jiangdu, Nanjing under the impact of Typhoon "Co-may"

  • 摘要: 2025年第8号台风“竹节草”给江苏省江都区带来持续性大暴雨,造成区内各站过程累计降水量均超过100 mm,大桥坤平站达208.2 mm。本文利用台风路径数据、降水和雷达组合反射率实况数据、ERA5、FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis)再分析资料和WRF模拟结果,采用天气学诊断、雷达回波分析和数值模拟相结合的方法。根据降水演变和主要影响系统的转换,将过程分为台风前部环流及本体影响阶段(7月30日08时—31日08时,北京时,下同)和冷空气与台风残涡外围环流共同影响阶段(8月1日08时—2日08时),重点分析大尺度环流背景与水汽条件,两阶段雷达回波和剖面水凝物特征及局地强降水的动力热力机制。结果表明:(1) 西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)与大陆高压形成“鞍型场配置,有利于500 hPa弱低压区维持,台风东侧与副高西侧气流叠加,增强东南暖湿输送,并与弱冷空气共同提供水汽和动力条件;(2) 第一阶段水凝物充足且集中,以螺旋雨带造成的持续性系统降水为主,第二阶段水凝物总量减少并向上层富集,冷空气侵入使对流回波较第一阶段更强;(3) 第二阶段高CAPE区由泰州移向江都,中低层假相当位温梯度增大,MPV1为负、沿江MPV2为正,低层辐合、高层辐散和水汽凝结潜热释放增强上升运动,持续水汽输送与沿江下垫面进一步促进降水的增强。研究结果可为江苏沿江地区台风本体及残涡阶段暴雨的机制诊断和监测预警提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Typhoon “Co-May” (No. 8 of 2025) brought persistent torrential rainfall to Jiangdu District, Jiangsu Province. Event-total rainfall exceeded 100 mm at all stations and reached 208.2 mm at Daqiao Kunping Station. The analysis used typhoon-track data, observed precipitation and composite radar reflectivity data, ERA5 and FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis) reanalysis data, and WRF simulations. Synoptic diagnosis, radar echo analysis, and numerical simulation were combined. Based on rainfall evolution and changes in the dominant weather systems, the event was divided into two stages. Stage 1 lasted from 08:00 BT on 30 July to 08:00 BT on 31 July. It was dominated by the circulation ahead of the typhoon and the typhoon circulation itself. Stage 2 lasted from 08:00 BT on 1 August to 08:00 BT on 2 August. It was jointly affected by cold air and the outer circulation of the remnant vortex. The study examined large-scale circulation and moisture conditions, radar echoes and hydrometeor characteristics during the two stages, and the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms of local heavy rainfall. The results are as follows. (1) The Western Pacific Subtropical High and the continental high formed a saddle pattern that sustained a weak low-pressure area at 500 hPa. Airflows east of the typhoon and west of the Western Pacific Subtropical High combined to strengthen southeasterly warm-moist transport. Weak cold air from the north provided additional dynamic forcing. (2) Stage 1 had abundant and concentrated hydrometeors, and spiral rainbands produced persistent widespread precipitation. Stage 2 had fewer hydrometeors concentrated aloft, while cold-air intrusion produced stronger convective echoes. (3) During Stage 2, the high-CAPE area moved from Taizhou toward Jiangdu, and the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature gradient increased in the lower and middle troposphere. MPV1 was negative, whereas MPV2 along the Yangtze River was positive. Low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, and condensational heating enhanced ascent through positive feedback. Persistent moisture transport and local surface conditions along the Yangtze River further intensified the rainfall. These findings provide a reference for diagnosing rainfall mechanisms and improving monitoring and early warning during the typhoon and remnant-vortex stages along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu.

     

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