高级搜索

基于地面加密降水观测的文山州暴雨特征及天气概念模型研究

Characteristics and synoptic conceptual model of rainstorms in Wenshan based on dense surface precipitation observations

  • 摘要: 为提升云南文山州暴雨预报预警能力,深化对复杂地形下暴雨发生规律的认识。基于2014—2023年文山州149个自动气象站逐小时降水资料及NCEP FNL再分析资料,分析了暴雨的精细化时空分布特征,对110例暴雨事件进行天气系统分型与合成分析,构建了文山州暴雨不同天气概念模型。结果表明:(1) 文山州暴雨呈频率略减、强度增强、历时缩短的变化趋势,极端性凸显;暴雨日短时强降水呈双峰型日变化(主峰23时、次峰18时,北京时,下同),其中20~39.9 mm·h−1、40~79.9 mm·h−1雨强分别高发于夜间、傍晚,≥80 mm·h−1雨强主要出现在凌晨。(2) 暴雨日数呈“南北多、中间少”分布,高发区位于迎风坡及喇叭口地形区,最大日降水量大值区位于州南部及北部局地。(3) 暴雨事件天气系统型分为六类,以切变线型(51.8%)、西太平洋副热带高压与滇缅高压(简称两高)辐合型(20.0%)、西行台风型(14.5%)和南支槽型(10.9%)为主;切变线型降水强度最强,两高辐合型和西行台风型受地形影响更显著,南支槽型局地性最突出。(4) 天气概念模型明确了四类暴雨的关键影响系统和落区判据,切变线型受850 hPa与700 hPa切变线共同影响,两高辐合型与辐合区内低涡或辐合切变线相关,西行台风型发生于台风东南气流中,南支槽型位于槽前低层辐合切变区。(5) 西行台风型水汽最丰沛、辐合最强,但热力不稳定较弱;两高辐合型与切变线型水汽热力相当;南支槽型水汽热力最弱但上升运动最强;各类型均具备高层辐散、低层辐合的动力配置。研究结果可为本地暴雨预报提供明确的参考模型。

     

    Abstract: To improve the forecasting and early warning capability for rainstorms in Wenshan, Yunnan, and enhance understanding of rainstorm occurrence over complex terrain, this study analyzed the fine-scale spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorms, classified 110 rainstorm events by weather system type, conducted composite analyses, and developed different synoptic conceptual models for different rainstorm types. The analysis was based on hourly precipitation data from 149 automatic weather stations in Wenshan and NCEP FNL reanalysis data during 2014-2023. The results show that: (1) Rainstorms in Wenshan exhibit a slightly decreasing trend in frequency, but increasing intensity with shorter durations and increasing extremes. The diurnal variation of short-duration heavy rainfall shows a bimodal pattern, with a primary peak at 23:00 and a secondary peak at 18:00 Beijing time (BT). Events with intensities of 20-39.9 mm·h−1 and 40-79.9 mm·h−1 occur most frequently during the night and early evening, respectively, while events ≥80 mm·h−1 mainly occur in the early morning. (2) The distribution of rainstorm days generally presents a pattern of "more in the north and south, less in the middle." High-incidence areas are mainly located on windward slopes and in trumpet-shaped topography, and localized maximum in daily precipitation occur primarily in the southern and northern parts of Wenshan. (3) Rainstorm events in Wenshan can be classified into six types, among which the shear-line type (51.8%), the two-high convergence type (20.0%), the westward-moving typhoon type (14.5%), and the southern-branch trough type (10.9%) are predominant. The shear-line type exhibits the strongest precipitation intensity. The two-high convergence type and the westward-moving typhoon type are more significantly affected by topography, while the southern-branch trough type shows the most pronounced localization. (4) The synoptic conceptual models reveal the key influencing systems and the criteria for precipitation areas for each rainstorm type: the shear-line type is jointly influenced by the shear lines at 850 and 700 hPa; the two-high convergence type is associated with the vortex or the convergence shear line within the convergence zone; the westward-moving typhoon type develops within southeasterly typhoon airflow; and the southern-branch trough type is situated in the lower-level convergence shear zone ahead of the trough. (5) The westward-moving typhoon type has the most abundant water vapor and the strongest water vapor convergence, but its thermal instability is relatively weak. The two-high convergence type and the shear-line type have comparable water vapor and thermal conditions. The southern-branch trough type has the weakest water vapor and thermal conditions but the strongest ascending motion. All four types exhibit a dynamic configuration characterized by upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence. These results can provide a clear reference model for local rainstorm forecasting.

     

/

返回文章
返回