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攀枝花低温低能型暴雨特征及成因初探

Preliminary study on the characteristics and causes of low-temperature, low-energy rainstorms in Panzhihua

  • 摘要: 研究低温低能型暴雨特征及成因,有助于深化不同类型暴雨的认识。基于攀枝花市1980—2022年338次暴雨过程,结合常规地面观测和ERA5再分析资料,确定了低温低能型暴雨的本地化筛选阈值,并分析其时空特征、环境条件与形成机理。结果表明:(1)攀枝花低温低能型暴雨的发生频次北多南少,9月为最易发月份,夜雨特征较明显,主要降水时段为22时(北京时,下同)至次日12时。(2)低温低能型暴雨多发生在14时/20时气温(T14/T20)、相对湿度(RH14/RH20)和水汽压(e14/e20)分别高于20.7/21.2 ℃、73%/79.8%和20.3/20.7 hPa的条件下;当T14/T20、RH14/RH20e14/e20分别低于19/20.2 ℃、61%/69%和16.5/17.3 hPa时,一般可排除其发生可能。(3)低温低能型暴雨虽热力条件偏弱,但动力与水汽条件更强,垂直上升运动峰值、低层辐合强度较非低温低能暴雨高,水汽通量辐合范围更广。低层较强的辐合抬升和来自孟加拉湾的水汽持续输送,是补偿低温低能劣势,促使暴雨出现的环流背景。研究明确了攀枝花市低温低能型暴雨环境参量的本地化判据指标及动力、水汽对热力的补偿机制,有助于提升此类暴雨的预报预警能力。

     

    Abstract: Studying the characteristics and causes of low-temperature, low-energy rainstorms helps deepen the understanding of various types of rainstorms. Based on 338 rainstorm events in Panzhihua from 1980 to 2022, combined with conventional surface observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, this study determined the localized screening thresholds for low-temperature, low-energy rainstorms, analyzed their spatiotemporal characteristics, environmental conditions, and formation mechanisms. The results show that: (1) the occurrence frequency of low-temperature, low-energy rainstorms in Panzhihua exhibits a north-high and south-low spatial distribution. September is the most frequent month of occurrence, exhibit an obvious nocturnal rainfall feature, and the main rainfall period is from around 22:00 (Beijing Time, BT, the same below) to 12:00 the next day. (2) Low-temperature, low-energy rainstorms in Panzhihua mostly occur under when the air temperature at 14:00/20:00 (T14/T20), relative humidity (RH14/RH20), and water vapor pressure(e14/e20) exceed 20.7/21.2 ℃, 73%/79.8%, and 20.3/20.7 hPa, respectively. Conversely, when T14/T20, RH14/RH20, and e14/e20 fall below 19/20.2 ℃, 61%/69%, and 16.5/17.3 hPa, respectively, the occurrence of such rainstorm events can generally be ruled out. (3) Although the thermal conditions of low-temperature, low-energy rainstorm events are relatively weak, their dynamic and moisture conditions are stronger than those of non-low-temperature, non-low-energy rainstorms. Specifically, the peak vertical upward motion and low-level convergence intensity are higher, and the water vapor flux convergence covers a broader area. The intense low-level convergence and updraft, coupled with the persistent moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal, effectively compensated for the adverse conditions of low temperature and limited convective available potential energy, thereby establishing the critical circulation background for the occurrence of heavy rainfall. This study establishes localized diagnostic criteria for environmental parameters of low-temperature, low-energy rainstorms in Panzhihua City, reveals the compensatory mechanism of dynamic and moisture conditions for thermal deficiencies, which can help improve the forecasting and early warning capabilities for such rainstorms.

     

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