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长株潭大风特征与成因分析及对低空无人机飞行的影响

Analysis of characteristics and causes of strong winds in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan region and their impacts on low-altitude UAV flights

  • 摘要: 为精准支撑长株潭地区低空飞行安全管控、航线优化及风险预警,基于2016—2025年该区域525个地面观测站逐小时极大风速数据与ERA5再分析资料,分析各级大风时空分布特征,进一步采用K-means动态聚类法对大风环流分型,讨论大风成因及对低空无人机飞行的影响。结果表明:(1) 5级以上大风频次空间分布整体呈北多南少格局,长沙北部为高频区域。(2) K-means聚类将5级以上大风环流划分为6类,主导天气系统的季节差异性显著,春夏季受斜压锋生、西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)外围环流与地形协同作用,株洲西部、长沙东北部及湘江谷地形成显著大风走廊;秋季台前飑线型大风高概率区集中于武陵山、雪峰山前侧平原;冬季高层冷平流强迫型大风集中于西北部及绿心地区周边。(3) 日变化显示,5—6级风为“单峰单谷”型,7级以上为“双峰双谷”型,春夏季为大风和极大风事件的高发季。该结果揭示了城市群复杂地形与大尺度环流的耦合机制,为大风预报理论提供了新的认识,同时为长株潭地区低空无人机飞行的安全管控、航线优化及风险预警提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Accurate characterization of gale climatology is essential for ensuring the safety, route optimization, and risk early warning of low-altitude flight in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (CZT) urban agglomeration. This study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of gales at different grades based on hourly maximum wind speed data from 525 surface stations and ERA5 reanalysis datasets in the region from 2016 to 2025. The K-means dynamic clustering algorithm is adopted to classify gale circulation patterns, and the corresponding formation mechanisms and their impacts on low-altitude aviation are further discussed. The results are shown as follows: (1) Gales of Grade 5 and above present distinct spatial heterogeneity, with an overall pattern of higher frequency in the north and lower frequency in the south. Northern Changsha is identified as the primary gale-prone area. (2) The circulations associated with Grade 5 and stronger gales are classified into six categories via K-means clustering, with significant seasonal differences in dominant synoptic systems. In spring and summer, the synergistic effects of baroclinic frontogenesis, peripheral circulations of the subtropical high, and terrain forcing produce prominent gale corridors over western Zhuzhou, northeastern Changsha, and the Xiangjiang River valley. In autumn, pre-typhoon squall line gales occur most frequently over the plains east of the Wuling and Xuefeng Mountains. In winter, gales induced by high-level cold advection are mainly distributed in the northwestern CZT region and the surrounding areas of the Green Heart Ecological Zone. (3) Diurnal variation analysis indicates that Grade 5-6 gales exhibit a single-peak and single-valley pattern, while Grade 7 and stronger gales show a double-peak and double-valley pattern, with spring and summer being the peak gale seasons. This study reveals the coupling mechanism between complex terrain and large-scale circulation in the urban agglomeration to regulate gale occurrence, providing new insights into gale forecasting. It also offers scientific support for low-altitude flight safety, route optimization, and operational risk warning in the CZT region.

     

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