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青藏高原东北侧一次极端暴雨过程的成因分析

A multiscale analysis of the formation mechanisms of an extreme rainstorm event over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 利用青海观测融合分析资料(Qinghai Analysis Data,QHA),结合地面观测、葵花8号卫星及ERA5再分析资料,对2022年8月13—14日青藏高原东北侧一次极端暴雨过程进行了多尺度综合分析。结果表明,此次暴雨发生在有利的大尺度环流背景下,南北冷暖气流在高原东北侧交汇,形成高层辐散与低层辐合的垂直配置;降水沿湟水和黄河河谷呈带状分布,表现出显著地形约束和夜雨增强特征。中β尺度对流系统是强降水的直接影响系统,经历了发展、成熟和衰减的完整生命史,其演变与降水强度变化较好对应,强降水发生在对流成熟阶段。600 hPa东风切变线及低层偏东气流是触发对流的关键动力因素,在“喇叭口”河谷地形作用下,暖湿气流持续辐合抬升并向西扩展,在深厚不稳定层结和高湿环境中触发强对流。对流成熟阶段,动力抬升、潜热释放及冰相微物理过程形成正反馈,0 ℃层附近融化及雨滴碰并增长显著提高降水效率。QHA能够刻画此次暴雨的中尺度结构特征,为青藏高原东北侧复杂地形区强降水监测预警提供分析依据。

     

    Abstract: Using the Qinghai Analysis Data (QHA), together with surface observations, Himawari-8 satellite data, and ERA5 reanalysis data, a multi-scale comprehensive analysis was conducted for an extreme rainstorm event that occurred on the northeastern side of the Tibetan Plateau during August 13-14, 2022. The results show that this rainstorm occurred under a favorable large-scale circulation background. Cold air masses from the north and warm air masses from the south converged on the northeastern side of the plateau, forming an upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence vertical configuration. Precipitation was distributed in a banded pattern along the Huangshui and Yellow River Valleys, exhibiting significant topographic constraints and nocturnal enhancement. A meso-β-scale convective system was the direct influencing weather system for the heavy rainfall. It underwent a complete life cycle of development, maturation, and dissipation, and its evolution corresponded well with variations in precipitation intensity, with the heaviest rainfall occurring during the mature stage of convection. The easterly shear line at 600 hPa and low-level easterly flow were the key dynamic factors triggering the convection. Under the forcing of the trumpet-shaped valley topography, warm and moist air continuously converged, ascended, and extended westward, triggering severe convection in the presence of deep unstable stratification and a highly humid environment. During the mature stage of convection, dynamic lifting, latent heat release, and ice-phase microphysical processes formed a positive feedback mechanism. Melting near the 0℃ level and raindrop collision-coalescence significantly enhanced precipitation efficiency. The QHA successfully captured the mesoscale structural characteristics of this rainstorm event, providing an important basis for the monitoring and early warning of heavy precipitation in the complex terrain on the northeastern side of the Tibetan Plateau.

     

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