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基于不同微物理方案的一次复杂飞机结冰环境模拟性能评估

Evaluation of different microphysical schemes for simulating a complex aircraft icing case

  • 摘要: 为提升飞机结冰预报能力,特别是改善过冷大水滴(Supercooled Large Droplets,SLD)及过冷小水滴的数值模拟效果,本文利用中尺度Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)模式,结合飞机云微物理观测数据,系统评估了Thompson、Morrison、NSSL 和 P3 四种微物理方案对2018年12月10日中国河南一次包含过冷小水滴、SLD 及混合相态的复杂飞机结冰环境的模拟能力。结果表明:(1) 四种方案均能合理再现降水空间分布和云层由液相主导向冰相增长的演变趋势,并成功在飞行轨迹附近模拟出高结冰潜势(>75%)与严重结冰强度。(2) 各方案在模拟液态水路径、冰水路径以及关键微物理参数(如云滴和雨滴的数浓度、质量浓度及中值体积直径)时表现出显著差异,这直接影响了SLD空间位置的预报准确性。(3) 对于过冷小水滴,NSSL方案表现最佳;对于SLD,NSSL和P3方案则能更好地再现其微物理特征。综合结冰潜势、SLD可能性和结冰严重度三项结冰风险评估指标,NSSL方案展现出最全面的综合性能,其模拟的SLD区域与飞行观测结果最为吻合。研究结果为飞机结冰业务预报中的模拟方案优化提供了参考依据。

     

    Abstract: To improve the numerical simulation of supercooled water and Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) for aircraft icing forecasting, this study evaluates four microphysical schemes (Thompson, Morrison, NSSL, P3) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a complex icing case in Henan, China, on 10 December 2018. This event featured supercooled small droplets, SLD, and mixed-phase conditions. Simulations were evaluated against in-situ aircraft data. All schemes reasonably captured the precipitation pattern and the cloud-phase transition from liquid to ice. They also identified regions of high icing potential (>75%) and severe icing along the flight track. However, significant differences emerged in simulating liquid/ice water paths and key microphysical parameters like droplet number and mass concentration, and Median Volume Diameter (MVD). These differences affected the forecast of SLD location. The NSSL scheme performed best for supercooled small droplets, while both NSSL and P3 schemes reproduced SLD well. Overall, the NSSL scheme provided the best balance in simulating icing potential, SLD presence, and severity, with its simulated SLD distribution showing the closest agreement with aircraft observations. This study highlights the critical impact of microphysical scheme choice on icing forecasts and provides guidance for selecting appropriate schemes in operational aviation weather forecasting.

     

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