高级搜索

四川盆地夏季短时强降水的多尺度特征及其天气型配置

Multi-scale characteristics and synoptic pattern configuration of summer short-duration heavy rainfall in the Sichuan Basin

  • 摘要: 四川盆地夏季短时强降水频繁引发洪涝灾害。本文基于1980—2024年四川盆地气象观测站夏季逐小时降水量资料、ERA5再分析资料研究该地区短时强降水多尺度特征,并利用谱聚类分型方法给出两种主控环流天气型的空间配置及其与局地气象、地形因子的关联。结果表明:(1) 四川盆地夏季短时强降水主要集中在四川盆地西部,盆西短时强降水主要发生在北京时间02:00点,盆东则主要发生在清晨5点。在次季节尺度上,四川盆地短时强降水主要发生在8月,集中在盆地西部。近44 a四川盆地夏季短时强降水发生频次呈现不显著上升趋势。(2) 主导该地区夏季52.8%的短时强降水事件的天气型1由相对于夏季气候态的南亚高压与副热带高压相向北抬并配合南风水汽输送导致,且局地垂直速度为关键动力因子,该天气型下短时强降水集中在盆地西南部,主要发生在7~8月,且近44 a发生频次呈现不显著下降的趋势。该天气型下短时强降水的发生主要与盆地西南部分北风分量大小有关。(3) 控制四川盆地夏季47.2%短时强降水事件的主控环流天气型2则主要是由相对于气候态相向南移的南亚高压与副热带高压并配合西南风水汽输送构成,且局地散度为主导动力因子。该天气型下短时降水主要发生在盆地西部,主要是集中在6月,近44 a发生频次呈现不显著上升的趋势,并且主要与四川盆地西北部的南风分量大小有关。两种天气型下的短时强降水均与局地海拔高度呈现负相关特征。研究成果可为四川盆地短时强降水的延伸期预报、精细化灾害风险预警提供重要的理论依据和天气学分型参考。

     

    Abstract: The Sichuan Basin is a key strategic area for promoting development in western China. During summer, short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR) frequently triggers flood disasters in this region. This study analyzes the multi-scale characteristics of SDHR in the Sichuan Basin using hourly station precipitation data from 1980 to 2024. A spectral clustering method is applied to classify the dominant synoptic circulation patterns. And the correlation between the frequency of SDHR and local topographic factors under different synoptic patterns is also studied. The results are as follows. (1) Summer SDHR in the Sichuan Basin is primarily concentrated in the western part. In the western basin, SDHR peaks around 02:00 BT, while in the eastern basin, it peaks around 05:00 BT. On the sub-seasonal scale, most SDHR events occur in August, mainly over the western basin. Over the past 44 years, the frequency of summer SDHR shows a non-significant increasing trend. (2) Approximately 52.8% of summer SDHR events are associated with a synoptic pattern. This pattern features a northward-displaced South Asia High and western Pacific Subtropical High relative to the climatological mean, coupled with southerly moisture transport, and the local vertical velocity is the key dynamic factor. Under this pattern, SDHR is concentrated in the southwestern basin, occurs mainly from July to August, and shows a non-significant decreasing trend in frequency over the past 44 years. The occurrence of SDHR under this pattern is primarily related to the magnitude of the northerly wind component in the southwestern basin. (3) Another synoptic pattern controls 47.2% of summer SDHR events. It is characterized by a southward-displaced South Asia High and western Pacific Subtropical High relative to climatology, accompanied by southwesterly moisture transport, and the local divergence is the key dynamic factor. Under this pattern, SDHR occurs mainly on the southwestern basin edge, is concentrated in June, shows a non-significant increasing trend in frequency, and is mainly associated with the magnitude of the southerly wind component in the northwestern basin. SDHR under both synoptic patterns is negatively correlated with local altitude. The research results can provide important theoretical basis and weather classification reference for the extension period forecast and refined disaster risk early warning of short-term heavy precipitation in the Sichuan Basin.

     

/

返回文章
返回