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广西一次强降水过程的区域水汽特征差异分析

Analysis of regional differences in water vapor characteristics during a heavy rainfall event in Guangxi

  • 摘要: 广西强降水空间差异显著,但同次过程中不同降水模态的水汽机制差异尚缺乏精细化研究。利用多源观测及再分析资料,基于水汽收支和视水汽汇诊断、后向轨迹追踪及聚类等方法,对2024年5月18—19日广西一次强降水过程进行了诊断分析。研究对比了沿海暖区极端强降水、桂中低涡型大范围强降水、桂北弱冷空气渗透型稳定性降水三种降水模态的水汽特征,从水汽视角揭示了降水落区与强度空间差异形成的可能机制。结果表明:(1) 大气可降水量(PWV)空间分布呈沿海-桂中-桂北阶梯递减,与降水强度一致。相较其他区域,沿海PWV在强降水前出现更显著跃升。(2) 沿海形成“低层强水汽输送-近地层强辐合-深厚上升运动”的有利垂直配置,并伴随凝结潜热释放的正反馈,最有利于水汽转化为降水,桂中次之,桂北低层水汽供给和上升运动均弱,潜热加热层偏高且与中层辐散重叠,正反馈中断。(3) 低层水汽收支净流入以桂中最大,沿海次之,桂北最弱。前两者净流入层深厚,桂北则因冷空气抬升而最为浅薄。(4) 水汽源地贡献上,沿海以粤东近海低热力能量湿通道为主导,并与南海东北部较高热力能量湿空气交汇,形成一定的低层热力差异。桂中受双高能暖湿通道叠加影响能量充足,桂北多通道分散且热力条件弱。研究为广西不同降水模态的精细化预报提供了具有区域针对性的水汽诊断思路。

     

    Abstract: Heavy precipitation in Guangxi exhibits pronounced spatial variability. However, detailed comparative studies on the differences in moisture mechanisms among precipitation modes within the same event are still lacking.To address this gap, multi-source observations and reanalysis data are used for a diagnostic analysis of a heavy precipitation event in Guangxi during 18-19 May 2024, based on moisture budget and apparent moisture sink diagnostics, backward trajectory tracking, and clustering. This study compares the moisture characteristics of three precipitation modes: extreme heavy precipitation in the coastal warm sector, low-vortex-related widespread heavy precipitation in central Guangxi, and stable precipitation associated with weak cold-air intrusion in northern Guangxi. From a moisture perspective, this comparison reveals possible mechanisms for the spatial differences in precipitation location and intensity. The results are as follows. (1) The precipitable water vapor (PWV) shows a stepwise decrease from the coastal region to central Guangxi and then to northern Guangxi, consistent with precipitation intensity. Compared with other regions, PWV in the coastal region shows a more pronounced increase before heavy precipitation. (2) The coastal region has a favorable vertical configuration, with strong low-level moisture transport, strong near-surface convergence, and deep upward motion. accompanied by positive feedback from condensational latent heat release, which is most favorable for converting moisture into precipitation. followed by central Guangxi. In northern Guangxi, low-level moisture supply and upward motion are both weak. The latent heating layer is higher and overlaps with mid-level divergence, which interrupts the positive feedback. (3) In the low-level moisture budget, net inflow is largest in central Guangxi, followed by the coastal region, and weakest in northern Guangxi. The net inflow layer is deep in the first two regions. In northern Guangxi, it is the shallowest due to cold-air lifting. (4) In terms of moisture source contributions, the coastal region is dominated by a low-thermal-energy, moist channel from the offshore waters of eastern Guangdong. This channel, together with relatively high-thermal-energy, moist air masses over the northeastern South China Sea, creates a certain low-level thermal contrast. Central Guangxi is affected by the superposition of two high-energy warm, moist channels and has sufficient energy. Northern Guangxi has multiple scattered channels and weak thermal conditions. This study provides a region-specific moisture diagnostic approach for refined forecasting of different precipitation modes in Guangxi.

     

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