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2026年湘西北一次极端暖区暴雨成因及多源观测特征分析

Analysis of the causation and multi-source observational characteristics of an extreme warm-sector heavy rainstorm in northwestern Hunan in 2026

  • 摘要: 2026年5月17—18日湘西北发生了一次极端暖区暴雨过程,小时雨强突破湖南省历史极值。利用地面加密气象站、ERA5再分析、双偏振雷达及风廓线雷达等资料,分析了此次过程的成因,并探讨了澧县与石门两个极端暴雨中心降水微物理及动力结构的差异。结果表明:(1) 高层辐散、中低层切变线、低空急流及地面中尺度锋面的垂直配置,为此次极端暴雨提供了有利的环流背景。(2) 副高西侧偏南急流将南海水汽持续向湘西北输送,是此次极端暴雨维持并产生极端短时雨强的主要水汽来源。条件性不稳定层结、强上升运动及垂直次级环流是此次极端暴雨发生的关键热动力条件。(3) 冷池出流与暖湿气流交汇而成的地面中尺度锋面触发了对流,该锋面受地形阻挡准静止维持,为后向传播对流系统的持续发展提供了有利条件。地形通过锋生、抬升及阻滞作用,增强并维持了此次湘西北极端暴雨过程。(4) 澧县极端雨强由低质心暖云对流单体造成,其差分相移率(KDP)高达7.2 °·km−1、差分反射率因子(ZDR)达4 dB,石门极端暴雨则以中等ZDR/KDP (2.4 dB/1.9 °·km−1)、相关系数(CC)高于0.98的后向传播对流单体群为主;而两者动力机制分别为中层急流核(3.5 km,26 m·s−1)与稳定维持的低空急流(1.6 km,20 m·s−1)。研究结论可为湖南极端暖区暴雨预报预警提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: An extreme warm-sector heavy rainstorm occurred in northwestern Hunan on 17–18 May 2026, breaking the historical record for hourly rainfall intensity in Hunan. Using intensive weather station observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, dual-polarization radar, and wind profile radar data, this study analyzed the formation mechanisms of this event and explored the precipitation microphysical and dynamical structural differences between the two extreme rainstorm centers (Lixian and Shimen). The results are as follows. (1) The vertical configuration of upper-level divergence, mid-to-lower-level shear lines, low-level jets, and surface mesoscale convergence lines provided a favorable circulation background for the extreme rainstorm. (2) The southerly low-level jets on the west side of the western Pacific subtropical high continuously transported moisture from the South China Sea to northwestern Hunan, serving as the primary moisture source that sustained the extreme rainstorm and enabled the record-breaking short-duration rainfall intensity. Conditional instability, intense ascending motion, and vertical secondary circulations were the key thermodynamic and the dynamic conditions responsible for this extreme rainstorm. (3) The surface mesoscale front, formed by the interaction of cold-pool outflows and warm moist inflows, triggered convection. Blocked by topography, this front remained quasi-stationary and provided favorable conditions for backward propagation, which were the key mesoscale mechanisms for the extreme rainstorm over northwestern Hunan. Through frontogenesis, uplift, and blocking effects, the topography further intensified and sustained this event. (4) Extreme rainfall intensity in Lixian was dominated by low echo centroid warm rain convective cells, with its KDP (specific differential phase) reaching 7.2 °·km1 and ZDR (differential reflectivity) reaching 4 dB, whereas the extreme rainstorm in Shimen was predominantly produced by back-building convective cell clusters with moderate ZDR/KDP (2.4 dB/1.9 °·km1) and CC(correlation coefficient)exceeding 0.98, with their dynamic mechanisms being the mid-level jet-core (3.5 km, 26 m·s1) for Lixian and the steady maintenance of the low-level jet (at 1.6 km, 20 m·s−1) for Shimen, respectively.This research provides a reference for forecasting and early warning of extreme warm-sector heavy rainstorms in Hunan.

     

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