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台风“美莎克”广西极端暴雨过程特征与成因初探

Analysis of the characteristics and formation mechanisms of the extreme rainstorm induced by Typhoon Maysak in Guangxi

  • 摘要: 受2026年第10号台风“美莎克”影响,7月3日08时—9日08时广西出现历史罕见的特大暴雨过程,造成严重灾害。利用常规高空和地面观测、国家和区域气象站、台风、雷达等资料及ERA5再分析资料,分析了此次过程的降水实况特征及成因。结果表明:此次过程累计降水量大、特大暴雨集中、极端性突出。钦州、防城港、南宁、贵港等市出现特大暴雨,累计降水量超过600 mm,局地达1 000 mm以上,降水极值位于广西沿海至南部。依据主要影响天气系统、雷达回波和强降水特征,此次过程可分为三个阶段:第一阶段降水集中、强度大;第二阶段降水范围最广、强度最大;第三阶段大暴雨分散,与地形关系密切。此次特大暴雨发生在中高纬度大气呈两槽一脊型、大陆高压和西太平洋副热带高压稳定、华南西部鞍型场使台风“美莎克”缓慢穿行广西、强劲季风尾随北上的环流背景下。强盛季风卷入台风环流,提供了持续而充沛的水汽和能量;深厚的低层辐合与高层辐散提供了稳定而强大的动力条件;低层维持暖湿环境和对流不稳定层结,配合强烈上升运动,是产生此次极端暴雨的重要原因。

     

    Abstract: Affected by Typhoon Maysak (the 10th typhoon of 2026), a historically rare and exceptionally severe rainstorm event occurred in Guangxi from 08:00 BT 3 to 08:00 BT 9 July 2026, causing severe disasters. This study investigated the precipitation characteristics and underlying causes of this extreme rainstorm event using multiple data sources, including conventional surface and upper-air observations, national and regional weather station precipitation records, typhoon track and intensity, radar measurements, and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results show that the event was characterized by large accumulated rainfall, highly concentrated heavy rainfall, and prominent extremeness. Torrential rainfall occurred in Qinzhou, Fangchenggang, Nanning, Guigang, and other cities, with accumulated precipitation exceeding 600 mm and locally exceeding 1 000 mm. The extreme precipitation is mainly distributed from the coastal areas to southern Guangxi. Based on the dominant synoptic-scale weather systems, radar echoes, and heavy precipitation characteristics, the precipitation process can be divided into three main stages. In the first stage, the heavy rainfall was concentrated and locally intense. In the second stage, the heavy rainfall area was the largest and the intensity was the highest. In the third stage, extremely heavy rainfall areas were scattered and more closely related to terrain. This extreme torrential-rain event occurred under a large-scale circulation background characterized by a two-trough-one-ridge pattern in mid-to-high latitudes, a stable continental high and the Western Pacific Subtropical High, a saddle-shaped pressure field over western South China, the slow passage of Typhoon Maysak across Guangxi, and the northward advance of vigorous monsoon flow. The strong monsoon flow was entrained into the typhoon circulation and supplied persistent and abundant water vapor and energy. Intense deep low-level convergence and upper-level divergence provided steady and powerful dynamic forcing. The maintenance of a low-level warm-moist environment and convectively unstable stratification, combined with vigorous upward motion, was an important contributor to the generation of extreme heavy rainfall.

     

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