初值不确定性对暴雨数值预报影响的初步研究

Preliminary Studies on the Effect of Initial Uncertainties on Heavy Rainfall Forecast

摘要: 为了研究初值不确定性对我国南方暴雨数值预报的影响,依据历史降水资料的统计分型,选取华南暴雨型、江淮暴雨型和黄淮暴雨型等三类型中具有代表性的暴雨过程,采用AREM模式以不同资料分析场(常规观测资料、NCEP和ERA40同化分析资料)

Abstract: This paper focused on studies on the effect of initial uncertainties on heavy rainfall forecast. Based on statistical heavy rainfall patterns from historical rainfall data for fifteen years, typical heavy rainfal