高级搜索

湖北“8·12”极端降水特征及成因初探

Analysis of characteristics and causes of "8.12" extreme precipitation in Hubei Province

  • 摘要: 2021年8月11日20时—12日20时(北京时,下同)湖北北部发生极端降水,24 h降水量最大达518.5 mm,1 h降水量最大达117.9 mm,造成了严重灾害。基于常规气象观测资料和ERA5再分析资料,采用统计学方法和天气学诊断分析法,对该过程极端降水的特征及天气学成因进行初步分析。利用常规气象观测资料和ERA5再分析资料,对2021年8月12日湖北省北部极端降水特征及其中尺度演变特征、环流形势和物理量极端性的天气学成因进行初步分析。结果表明:(1)不同区域降水性质不同,总体有累计降水量大、小时雨强强、降水时段集中、极端性突出、致灾性强等特点。(2)β中尺度对流云团发展迅速、持续时间长、东移速度慢是造成此次极端降水的主要因素。(3)高层南亚高压、高空急流以及中层副热带高压和低槽是主要影响系统,中低层切变线、低层低涡以及偏东急流是直接参与者。(4)925—850 hPa低涡和偏东急流异常强盛且长时间维持,导致低层形成强动力辐合中心和强水汽辐合中心,有利于700 hPa以下上升运动发展和维持。偏东急流也有利于低层能量锋加强南压以及θse高能区和对流不稳定层结的建立,促进对流性强降水的发生发展。(5)925—850 hPa的涡度、垂直速度、比湿和整层可降水量均表现出异常的极端性,且其异常度演变趋势与雨强演变趋势基本一致。

     

    Abstract: Extreme precipitation occurred in northern Hubei,with the maximum precipitation of 518.5 mm in 24 hours and 117.9 mm in 1 hour,causing serious disasters from 20:00 BT on August 11 to 20:00 BT on August 12,2021. Based on conventional meteorological observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data,the characteristics and synoptic causes of extreme precipitation for the event are preliminarily analyzed using statistical methods and synoptic diagnostic analysis methods. The results are shown below. (1) Although the characteristics of rain are different in different regions,the extreme rainstorm has the characteristics of large accumulated rainfall,strong short-term rainfall,concentrated precipitation period,strong disaster possibility,and extreme rainfall. (2) The rapid development,long duration and slow eastward movement of β-Mesoscale Convective System (MβCS) are the main reasons for the extreme precipitation. (3) The main influence systems are the high level South Asia High (SAH),the upper jet,the middle level West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and the low trough. The direct participants are the mid- low level wind shear,mesoscale vortex and easterly jet. (4) The abnormal strength and maintenance of 850-925 hPa mesoscale vortex and easterly jet lead to the formation of strong dynamic convergence center and strong water vapor convergence center in the lower layer,providing continuous vertical upward movement below 700 hPa. The jet also favors the strengthening of energy front and the establishment of high-energy region and low-level instability,which leads to the occurrence and development of convective heavy rain. (5) The precipitable water in the whole layer and the vorticity and the vertical velocity and specific humidity at 925-850 hPa show relatively abnormal extreme characteristics. In addition,its anomaly evolution trend is basically consistent with the evolution trend of rainfall intensity.

     

/

返回文章
返回