Disaster-causing hazard assessment of rainstorms in Anhui Province
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摘要:
致灾危险性评估是暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的关键。基于安徽省所有国家气象观测站及区域自动气象站建站至2020年逐日逐时降水量及地理信息等资料，采用信息熵赋权法确定单站暴雨过程四个特征量的权重，并计算出暴雨过程强度指数及年雨涝指数，运用百分位数法将暴雨过程强度等级划分为四级，依据海拔高度和地形变化，分别计算山洪和平原内涝的孕灾环境影响指数及致灾危险性指数，并将两者进行叠加，得到安徽省暴雨综合致灾危险性分布。结果表明：基于50%、75%和90%三个百分位数的安徽省暴雨过程强度指数的阈值分别为0.059、0.095和0.154；年雨涝指数呈现“南高北低”的空间分布，大别山区、沿江中西部及江南西南部较高，而沿淮淮北及江淮之间中部相对较低；山洪和平原内涝的孕灾环境影响指数与地形密切相关，大别山区和皖南山区山洪孕灾环境影响指数较高，合肥以北、沿江大部及江南东部平原内涝孕灾环境影响指数较高；根据风险就高的原则，将山洪和平原内涝进行叠加，得出融合山洪和平原内涝的暴雨综合致灾危险性分布图，高危险区主要位于安徽省西南部，而低危险区主要位于淮北北部、沿淮中西部及江淮之间中部。评估结果可用于全省气象灾害综合风险普查专项工作、实时气象防灾减灾业务服务以及规划计划、重大工程建设气候可行性论证等工作。
Abstract:Disaster-causing hazard assessment is the key to risk assessment and regionalization of rainstorms and flood disasters. Using the hourly and daily precipitation data of all national and regional meteorological stations in Anhui Province from the year of establishment of these stations to 2020, as well as the geographic information data, etc., this paper has determined the weights of the four characteristic quantities of the single station rainstorm process by the information entropy weighting method, and then calculated the rainstorm process intensity indexes and annual waterlogging indexes. The intensity grade of the rainstorm process is divided into four grades by using the percentage quantile method. According to the altitude and terrain changes, the hazard-inducing environment impact index and disaster-causing hazard index of torrential flood and plain waterlogging are calculated respectively, and the two are superimposed to obtain the comprehensive distribution of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorms in Anhui Province. The results show that the thresholds of the rainstorm process intensity index in Anhui Province based on the three percentiles of 50%, 75%, and 90% are 0.059, 0.095, and 0.154 respectively. The annual waterlogging index shows a spatial distribution of the "high in the south and low in the north" characteristic, with higher values in the Dabie Mountain, the central and western region along the Yangtze River, and the southwestern region of the Jiangnan, while relatively lower values in the Huaibei region and the middle of the Jiang-Huai region. The hazard-inducing environment impact indexes of torrential flood and plain waterlogging are closely related to terrain. The hazard-inducing environment impact index of the torrential flood is relatively high in the Dabie Mountain and southern mountainous area in Anhui Province, while the hazard-inducing environment impact index of plain waterlogging is relatively high in the northern part of Hefei, most areas along the Yangtze River and the eastern of Jiangnan. According to the risk evaluating principle of being subject to the higher one, the disaster-causing hazards of torrential flood and plain waterlogging have been superimposed and the comprehensive disaster-causing hazard map of rainstorms has been obtained. The high-risk area is mainly located in the southwest of Anhui, while the low-risk area is mainly located in the north of Huaibei, the middle and west of the Huaihe River, and the middle of the Jiang-Huai region. The evaluation results can be applied to the special work of comprehensive risk survey of meteorological disasters in the whole province, real-time meteorological disaster prevention and reduction service, climate feasibility demonstration of planning and major engineering construction, etc.
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图 1 安徽省气象站点分布、地形高度和行政区域
Figure 1. Distribution of DEM, administrative division, and meteorological stations in Anhui Province
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图 2 采用国家站(a)、区域站(b)及所有气象站(c)降水资料计算的安徽省年雨涝指数分布
Figure 2. Distribution of annual waterlogging index calculated by the precipitation of (a) national stations, (b) regional stations and (c) all stations in Anhui Province
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图 3 安徽省山洪(a)和平原内涝(b)孕灾环境影响指数分布
Figure 3. Distribution of hazard-inducing environment impact index of (a) the torrential flood and (b) plain waterlogging in Anhui Province
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图 4 安徽省山洪(a)和平原内涝(b)致灾危险性等级分区
Figure 4. Level zoning of disaster-causing hazards of (a) the torrential flood and (b) plain waterlogging in Anhui Province
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图 5 安徽省暴雨综合致灾危险性区划分布
Figure 5. Distribution of comprehensive disaster-causing hazard of rainstorms in Anhui Province
表 1 基于百分位数的安徽省暴雨过程强度等级划分
Table 1 Classification of rainstorm process intensity in Anhui Province based on percentile method
等级 百分位区间/% 强度指数(IR) 强度评估 Ⅳ ≤50 IR≤0.059 一般性 Ⅲ (50，75] 0.059 < IR≤0.095 偏强 Ⅱ (75，90] 0.095 < IR≤0.154 强 Ⅰ > 90 IR > 0.154 极端事件 
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表 2 不同高程标准差下安徽省山洪地形因子影响指数
Table 2 Terrain factor impact index of torrential flood of different elevation standard deviations
高程标准差/m 海拔高度/m < 100 [100, 300) [300, 500) [500, 800) ≥800 < 1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 [1, 10) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 [10, 20) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 ≥20 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
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表 3 不同高程标准差下安徽省平原内涝地形因子影响指数
Table 3 Terrain factor impact index of plain waterlogging of different elevation standard deviations
高程标准差/m 海拔高度/m < 100 [100, 300) [300, 500) [500, 800) ≥800 < 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 [1, 10) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 [10, 20) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 ≥20 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
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