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不同资料同化对四川一次暴雨过程数值模拟的对比分析

Comparative analysis of simulation of a heavy rain in Sichuan Province with different data assimilation

  • 摘要: 为评估中尺度模式同化常规地面、探空和雷达径向风等不同观测资料对四川暴雨预报性能的影响,以2020年6月14—18日四川一次暴雨过程为例,利用WRF(Weather Research And Forecasting)模式和GSI(Grid Point Statistical Interpolation)同化系统,对常规观测资料和雷达资料分别和同时进行循环同化,开展数值模拟试验,定性和定量地对比分析三组同化试验的降水模拟效果。结果表明:WRF模式结合GSI同化系统对此次暴雨有较好的模拟。针对21 h累积降水模拟,同化常规观测资料较好地改善了暴雨雨带的走向和暴雨的落区;同化雷达资料对降水强度、暴雨范围和小到中雨预报表现较好,小到中雨的ETS评分平均提升0.05;同时同化两种资料对大雨的ETS、POD、FAR和BIAS评分都有改善。针对半日累积降水预报,同化雷达资料对降水趋势的模拟表现最好,同化包括雷达资料的试验对降水落区有较好的改善。针对3 h累积降水预报,同化试验对降水演变均有改善,同化雷达资料表现最好。模式对夜间降水的模拟普遍优于白天,同化试验的改善时段也主要集中在夜间,同化常规资料表现显著。综合21 h、半日和3 h累积降水预报评分结果,同时同化多种资料的降水预报效果不绝对优于仅同化一种资料的降水预报,但至少优于一种资料同化的降水预报评分结果。

     

    Abstract: In order to evaluate the influence of the assimilation of different observational data such as conventional ground observations, radiosonde and radar radial wind on the meso-scale model of heavy rain forecast in Sichuan Province, a heavy rainstorm process in Sichuan from 14 to 18 June, 2020 is used as an example. Using Weather Research And Forecasting (WRF) model and Grid Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system, we assimilated the conventional and radar data respectively and simultaneously, and compared the results of three assimilation experiments qualitatively and quantitatively. The results show that the WRF model combined with the GSI assimilation system can simulate the rainstorm well. For the 21-h cumulative precipitation forecast, assimilating conventional observation data can better improve the trend of rain belt and the fall area of the rainstorm. The assimilated radar data showed better performance in precipitation intensity, rainstorm range and the light to moderate rain forecast, The average ETS score of the light to moderate rain was increased by 0.05. Assimilation of both the conventional observation and radar data improved ETS, POD, FAR and BIAS scores for heavy rain. For the12-h cumulative precipitation forecast, the simulation performance of the precipitation trend is the best with the assimilation of radar data, and the experiment involving the assimilation of radar data has better improvement on the precipitation area. For the 3-h cumulative precipitation forecast, the assimilation experiment improved the precipitation evolution, and the assimilation of radar data showed the best performance. The simulation of precipitation at night was generally better than that in the daytime, and the improvement period of assimilation experiment was mainly concentrated in the nighttime, and the assimilation of conventional observation data showed significant performance improvement. Based on the scores of 21-h, 12-h and 3-h cumulative precipitation forecast, the precipitation forecast effect of assimilating multiple data is not absolutely better than those of assimilating only one data, but the assimilation of multiple data can achieve better scores than those of assimilating only one data.

     

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