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农作物洪涝灾害致灾机理与评估方法研究进展与展望

Advances and perspectives in research about mechanism and assessment methods of crop flood disaster

  • 摘要: 洪涝灾害是影响农业生产的主要自然灾害之一,开展农作物洪涝灾害损失评估是指导农业防灾减灾的重要依据,对稳定农业生产和保障粮食安全具有重要意义。首先,简要回顾了近30 a农作物洪涝灾害致灾机理的研究进展,分类梳理农作物洪涝灾害损失评估的主要方法,指出相关方法在不同应用场景中的优势和局限性;在此基础上,提出以多源数据为支撑、以水动力模型为引擎、基于数值模拟与机器学习相结合、面向致灾过程的农作物洪涝灾害损失动态模拟框架,并展望提出未来重点研究的3个方向:(1)构建多致灾参数脆弱性模型,完善针对不同孕灾环境和承灾体的模型库;(2)加强多源数据融合应用以提高评估精度,发展并行计算和人工智能算法以提高计算效率;(3)加强洪涝灾害评估综合平台建设,向深度智能化场景应用转变。

     

    Abstract: Flooding is one of the main natural disasters that affect agricultural production. The loss assessment of crop flood damage is an important basis for guiding the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disaster, which is of great significance for maintaining the stability of agricultural production and ensuring food security. Firstly, we briefly reviewed the research advances on the formative mechanism in crop flood damage, sorted out the main methods of loss assessment of crop flood damage, and pointed out the advantages and limitations of these methods in various application scenarios. Secondly, based on the comments above, we proposed an integrated framework for dynamic assessment of crop flood damage. This framework is supported by multi-source data, powered by hydrodynamic model, based on the combination of numerical simulation and machine learning, and oriented towards disaster events. Finally, we proposed some practical suggestions and research directions for further study, including (1) constructing multi-parameter loss function and model libraries for different exposures and vulnerability environments, (2) strengthening the application of multi-source data to improve assessment accuracy, and developing parallel computing and artificial intelligence algorithms to improve computational efficiency, (3) constructing comprehensive platform for flood disaster assessment and changing to intelligent applications.

     

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