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CMA-REPS系统的降水邻域集合概率预报方法研究

Study on neighborhood ensemble probability forecasting method of precipitation for CMA-REPS system

  • 摘要: 基于CMA-REPS V3.1区域集合预报系统,在降水邻域集合概率法的基础上对其算法进行优化,发展了一种优化的邻域集合概率方法。选取该系统2021年5—7月逐日24 h累积降水资料计算降水邻域概率。采用国家气象信息中心开发的三源融合格点降水产品作为观测降水,用相对作用特征曲线面积评分法对降水邻域概率预报结果进行检验,并与邻域集合概率法和集合平均邻域概率法的评分结果对比,结合典型降水个例,评估三种方法的降水概率预报效果,结果表明优化的邻域集合概率法的评分最高,其反映的降水信息与观测更一致。利用这三种方法的降水邻域概率计算集合降水的分数技巧评分(Fractions Skill Score,FSS),结果显示基于优化的邻域集合概率法的FSS评分高于集合平均邻域概率法,且与邻域集合概率法的FSS评分各有优势,前者对小量级降水,尤其是小雨和中雨的评分最高,后者对大量级降水,尤其是暴雨的评分最高;基于优化的邻域集合概率法的FSS评分相对更客观。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, based on the regional ensemble CMA-REPS V3.1 system, the algorithm for the neighborhood ensemble probability method of precipitation is optimized. The daily 24-hour accumulated precipitation data from May to July 2021 are selected to calculate the neighborhood probability of precipitation. The grid precipitation product combined from three sources developed by the National Meteorological Information Center is selected as the observational data. The optimized method is evaluated using the area scoring method with the relative operating characteristic curve, and is compared with the scoring results of original neighborhood ensemble probability method and ensemble mean neighborhood probability method. At the same time, a typical precipitation case is selected to evaluate these three methods. It is found that the optimized method has the highest score, and its predicted information of precipitation is more consistent with the observations. In this paper, the three precipitation neighborhood probability prediction results are also used to calculate the FSS (Fractions Skill Score) of ensemble precipitation. It is found that the FSS score based on the optimized method is higher than that of ensemble mean neighborhood probability method. Both the optimized and original methods have some advantages in terms of the FSS score. The former one has better scoring for small precipitation, especially for light rain and moderate rain, and the latter one for large precipitation, especially, the scores of rainstorm is better. FSS score based on the optimized method is relatively more objective.

     

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