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基于GIS的咸宁市枇杷气象灾害危险性评价

Risk assessment of meteorological disasters of loquat planting in Xianning of Hubei based on GIS

  • 摘要: 气象灾害是影响枇杷规模化种植和发展最重要的因素之一。以湖北省咸宁市典型枇杷产区为例,首先在对该区近10 a枇杷种植情况及气象灾害调查的基础上,结合该市6个国家级气象站及135个区域气象站观测资料以及30 m×30 m精度的DEM高程数据,分析确定致灾因子指标,建立枇杷气象灾害指数和等级标准;然后,利用层次分析法计算得到各气象灾害危险指数权重,构建气象灾害综合危险性评价模型;最后,借助多元回归分析方法建立气象灾害概率空间分布函数,结合GIS技术,对该市枇杷种植的气象灾害危险性进行评价和区划。结果表明:(1)咸宁市枇杷种植的气象灾害主要是低温冻害、高温热害和春季连阴雨,其中低温冻害对枇杷种植的危险性高于春季连阴雨和高温热害。(2)咸宁市中部、南部的中高山地区为枇杷种植的高危险区,中部和南部山体以北的丘陵、低山区为中危险区,北部沿江滨湖区、中部盆地及湖库四周为低危险区。(3)咸宁市枇杷种植的气象灾害危险性与地理因子之间关系密切。随着海拔增高,枇杷遭受低温冻害和连阴雨灾害的危险性呈增大趋势,高温热害的危险性则呈降低趋势;由于水体增温效应和山体对南下强冷空气的屏障作用,沿江、湖库等近水体区域及中高山体南部近邻区域枇杷种植的重度低温危险性较低。

     

    Abstract: The meteorological disaster is one of the most important factors affecting the large-scale planting and development of loquat. Taking the typical loquat producing areas in Xianning City of Hubei as an example, firstly, based on the investigation of planting situation and meteorological disasters in this areas in recent 10 years, combined with the observational data at the 6 national meteorological stations and the 135 regional weather stations in Xianning as well as the DEM elevation data of 30 m×30 m, we analyzed the disaster-causing factors and established the meteorological disaster index and its grade standard of loquat. Secondly, we constructed a comprehensive hazard assessment model of meteorological disasters by using the weight of each meteorological disaster hazard index calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process. Finally, with the spatial distribution function of disaster probability established by the multiple regression analysis method combining the GIS technology, we conducted the evaluation and zoning of meteorological disaster hazard of loquat planting in this city. The results showed that (1) the meteorological disasters of loquat planting in Xianning City are mainly low temperature freeze injury, high temperature heat injury, and continuous rain in spring. Among them, the risk of low temperature freezing injury of loquat planting is higher than those of spring continuous rain and high temperature heat injury. (2) The middle-high mountains in the middle and the southern part of Xianning are the high-hazard areas of loquat planting. The hills and low mountains in the north of middle and southern mountains in Xianning are the middle-hazard areas. The lakeside area along the river in the north, the basin in the middle and the surrounding areas of lakes and reservoirs in Xianning are the low-hazard areas. (3) The meteorological disaster hazard of loquat planting in Xianning is closely related to geographical factors. As the altitude increase, the hazards of loquat suffering from low temperature freezing injury and continuous rain disaster increase, while the hazard of high temperature heat injury to loquat decreases. Due to the warming effect of water bodies and the blocking effect of mountains on the southward strong cold air, the hazard of severe low temperature to loquat planting is low in the areas near water bodies such as rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, and the southern neighboring areas of mid-high mountains in Xianning.

     

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