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基于ECMWF模式漏报的青岛沿海大风预报模型及其应用

A forecast model for gale along the coast of Qingdao corresponding to the ECMWF missing-forecast and its operational application

  • 摘要: 基于数值预报模式漏报大风建立相应的预报模型,有助于提高我国沿海地区大风预报能力。首先,筛选2016—2019年历年青岛沿海地区大风个例,获得欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)高分辨率模式(简称EC模式)漏报的大风过程数据集;然后,基于支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)、人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network,ANN)和长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)三种算法,分别建立青岛沿海大风预报模型,对EC模式预报的风速进行订正;最后,经对比分析,筛选出适合青岛沿海大风预报的模型(即基于SVM算法建立的预报模型SVM_2),并对其进行业务应用效果检验。结果显示,SVM_2模型相比其他模型预报的大风误差最小。为了检验SVM_2模型对大风过程的预报效果,选取不同天气系统影响下青岛发生的两个沿海大风个例,对SVM_2模型和EC模式预报误差作进一步检验,结果表明SVM_2模型预报的最大风速与实况的误差明显小于EC模式,且该模型对EC模式预报的青岛沿海大风偏弱有一定改善。

     

    Abstract: Establishing the corresponding forecasting models based on numerical model that fails to capture gale events is helpful to improve the ability to forecast gales in coastal areas of China. First, we screened for gale events occurred in coastal areas of Qingdao from 2016 to 2019, and established the dataset of gale events that are missed by the forecast with ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast) high resolution model (hereinafter referred to as EC model). Second, based on support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM) algorithms, we established the forecast models for gales along the coast of Qingdao, and used these models to revise the wind speed forecasted by the EC model. Finally, after comparative analysis, a model suitable for forecasting gale along the coast of Qingdao, i.e. the forecast model SVM_2 based on SVM algorithm, was selected and its operational forecasting results were ex⁃ amined. Results show that the SVM_2 model has the smallest forecast error for wind speed compared to other models. In order to evaluate the prediction performance of SVM_2 model in terms of the gale events, two gale events occurred in the coast of Qingdao and influenced by differ⁃ ent weather systems are selected to further examine the prediction error of SVM_2 model and EC model for the gale events. The results show that the error of the maximum wind speed forecasted by the SVM_2 model against the observations is significantly smaller than that of the EC model, and the SVM_2 model also has some improvement on the weak gale along the coast of Qingdao compared to the forecast by EC model.

     

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