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武汉市电力负荷特征及其与气象因子的关系

Characteristics of power load in Wuhan and its relationship with meteorological factors

  • 摘要: 利用武汉市2013—2018年逐15 min精细化电力负荷数据及武汉市日降水、气温等气象资料,统计分析电力负荷特征指标,探寻电力负荷的构成、变化规律及其与气象因子的关系。研究结果表明: (1) 近年来武汉市电力负荷和日负荷峰谷差屡破新高,夏季高温持续时间和强度大小对空调负荷影响最为显著。电力负荷随季节变化呈现出明显的“双峰双谷”特征。(2) 夏季电力负荷远高于其它三季,冬季次之。四季日变化特征总体呈现“昼高夜低”的分布。(3) 工作日和双休日负荷明显高于节假日,工作日负荷略高于双休日,其中工作日的早高峰负荷最大,而双休日和节假日的晚高峰负荷最大。(4) 气象因子对全社会用电量影响尤为重要。夏季气象敏感负荷与日平均气温的关系最密切,当平均气温高于初始敏感值和强敏感值时,电力负荷随气温上升增幅更加明显。(5) 无论是否出现降水,夏季气象敏感负荷与日平均气温的关系都很密切。无降水天气,负荷与日平均气温相关性最高;有降水发生时,气象敏感负荷与日平均气温的相关性呈下降趋势,总体反映出降水影响气温、气温影响电力负荷的物理过程和机制。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, the 15 min refined power load data、daily temperature and precipitation data of Wuhan from 2013 to 2018 are used to calculate out and analyse the characteristic indexes of power load, with the internal composition and changing law being explored. The results show that: (1) the power load and the daily load peak-valley difference in Wuhan have been broken for new records in recent years, the duration and intensity of high temperature have the most significant impact on air conditioning load in summer. The power load shows obvious "double peak and double valley" characteristics with the season. (2) The power load is much higher in summer than in other seasons, followed by winter. The distributions of diurnal variation characteristics are "high in the day and low in the night" in four seasons. (3) The power load of working days and weekends is significantly higher than that in holidays, and the power load is slightly higher on weekdays than on weekends the morning peak load is the largest on workdays, while the evening peak load is the largest on weekends and holidays. (4) Meteorological factors have an important impact on the electricity consumption of the whole society, and the relationship between meteorological sensitive load and daily average temperature is most significant in summer. When the average temperature is higher than the initial and sensitive value, the power load increases more obviously with the temperature rise. (5) No matter there is precipitation or not, the relationship between meteorological sensitive load and daily average temperature in summer is very close. Without precipitation, the power load has the best correlation with daily average temperature; the correlation between meteorological sensitive load and daily average temperature shows a downward trend in a rainy day, which reflects that the physical processes and mechanisms of precipitation can affect temperature and hence power load.

     

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