高级搜索

暴雨过程致灾危险性评估方法研究——以孝感市“8·12”暴雨过程为例

Research of rainstorm event disaster hazard assessment method-A case study of "8·12" rainstorm event in Xiaogan City

  • 摘要: 暴雨过程致灾危险性评估是暴雨灾害风险评估的基础和重要环节,可为气象防灾减灾提供重要技术支撑。利用孝感市7个国家气象观测站及120个区域气象观测站逐日、逐时降水量观测资料及地理信息资料,采用暴雨过程灾害危险性动态评估方法,对2021年8月12日发生于湖北省孝感市的一次区域性暴雨过程进行了致灾危险性评估。基于暴雨过程降水特征量分析,确定暴雨过程致灾因子,采用信息熵权法确定4个致灾因子权重系数,计算了暴雨过程强度指数;基于暴雨区下垫面特征分析,明确地形影响系数、水系影响系数为孕灾环境因子,并等权求和构成孕灾环境综合指数;暴雨过程致灾危险性指数由暴雨过程强度指数和孕灾环境综合指数加权构成,采用自然断点法将暴雨过程致灾危险性指数划分为5个等级,基于GIS绘制了暴雨过程致灾危险等级分区图,利用主要承灾体灾情数据验证了危险性评估结果的合理性。结果表明:(1)此次暴雨过程具有来势猛、短时降水量大、降水集中等特点,暴雨过程86.1%降水量集中在6 h以内,最大6 h降水量达50 a一遇,选取致灾因子时重点考虑短历时降水量;(2)孝南区大部、云梦县中部、应城市东北部、安陆市西南部为暴雨过程致灾高危险区,而较高危险区覆盖孝感市中部,这与暴雨强度及地形、水系河网等环境敏感性有关;(3)高和较高危险区对应暴雨灾情较重的区域,实际灾害等级达到“大型”灾害等级,致灾危险性评估结果反映了主要承灾体灾害损失实际。

     

    Abstract: The assessment of disaster-causing hazards for the rainstorm event is a fundamental and key aspect of assessing the risk of rainstorm disasters, which can provide essential technical support for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation. Using the hourly and daily precipitation data from 7 national meteorological observation stations and 120 regional automatic weather stations in Xiaogan City, as well as geographic information data, etc., a regional rainstorm event disaster-causing hazard that occurred in Xiaogan City on 12 August 2021 was evaluated base on dynamic assessment method of disaster hazard assessment of rainstorm process. By analyzing rainfall characteristic quantity, the disaster-causing factors were identified. Four disaster-causing factors were calculated using the information entropy-weight method, and the rainstorm event intensity index was calculated. The topographic-effected indices and the drainage-effected indices were determined as environmental factors based on analyzing the underlying surface characteristics in the rainstorm area. Then a synthetical index of disaster-prone environment was calculated using equal weighted summation of these indices. The disaster-causing hazard indices of the rainstorm event are composed of the weighted intensity indices of rainfall and the synthetical indices of disaster-prone environment. It was divided into five levels by using the Jenks natural breaks method, and the hazard level zonation chart for the rainstorm event was created using GIS. Finally, the hazard evaluation results were validated by the real rainstorm disaster data from the main affected area. The main results are as follows. (1) The "8.12" rainstorm event was characterized by its suddenness, heavy short-term rainfall, and concentrated precipitation, with 86.1% precipitation concentrated in 6 hours, and maximum precipitation in 6 hours of being up to a 50-year recurrence period, so the disaster-causing factors were selected by mainly considering the short-term precipitation. (2) The highest-level disaster hazard zones are located in most of Xiaonan district, central Yunmeng, north-east Yingcheng City, and southwest Anlu City, while the higher-level disaster hazard zone covers almost all the central part of Xiaogan City. Note that the results depend on the rainstorm intensity, the environment of the terrain, and the river network. (3) The highest- and higher-level hazard zones were areas corresponding to the regions with heavy rainstorm damage, with the actual disaster level reaching the "major" disaster level. The hazard assessment results actually reflected the actual losses in the main affected area.

     

/

返回文章
返回