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杨宁, 闫敏慧, 陈农, 钱眺, 王蕾, 张金峰, 周莹. 2024: Rossby波传播特征及其对北极东北航道起始段海域天气的影响研究. 暴雨灾害, 43(5): 551-559. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-089
引用本文: 杨宁, 闫敏慧, 陈农, 钱眺, 王蕾, 张金峰, 周莹. 2024: Rossby波传播特征及其对北极东北航道起始段海域天气的影响研究. 暴雨灾害, 43(5): 551-559. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-089
YANG Ning, YAN Minhui, CHEN Nong, QIAN Tiao, WANG Lei, ZHANG Jinfeng, ZHOU Ying. 2024: Study on the propagation characteristics of Rossby wave and its influence mechanism on weather at the initial section of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 43(5): 551-559. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-089
Citation: YANG Ning, YAN Minhui, CHEN Nong, QIAN Tiao, WANG Lei, ZHANG Jinfeng, ZHOU Ying. 2024: Study on the propagation characteristics of Rossby wave and its influence mechanism on weather at the initial section of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 43(5): 551-559. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-089

Rossby波传播特征及其对北极东北航道起始段海域天气的影响研究

Study on the propagation characteristics of Rossby wave and its influence mechanism on weather at the initial section of the Northeast Passage in the Arctic

  • 摘要: 北极东北航道起始段海域位于我国黄渤海,大风和强降水是可能威胁到该海域航运安全的主要灾害性天气类型。其中寒潮天气过程伴随的冷空气大风以及热带气旋、温带气旋等天气系统产生的大风、强降水等灾害性天气,对该海域航运安全造成很大影响。利用1991—2020年美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)全球逐日再分析资料,分析了北极东北航道适航期(7—10月) Rossby波沿高空急流能量传播特征及其对北极东北航道起始段海域天气的影响,特别是对强降水的影响。结果表明:(1) 沿北半球副热带地区250hPa高空西风急流轴经向风表现为纬向三波型准静止的Rossby波形态;(2) 高空250hPa大气准静止Rossby波波源位于地中海地区,波动在此激发并沿急流向东传播,传播过程中波动能量耗散,但波源即地中海地区能量的不断注入,使其得以维持和加强;(3)波作用通量散度指数与北极东北航道起始段海域降水量、风速相关系数绝对值达0.5以上,其中位于我国东北部至鄂霍茨克海地区的波作用通量指数与降水量和风速相关系数的绝对值均接近0.9,属于强相关,说明Rossby波沿高空急流传播时能量汇集、加强,对北极东北航道起始段海域的降水量、风速影响较大,从而可触发强降水、大风等灾害性天气;(4) 当Rossby波扰动偏强时,向下游传播能量偏强,则西风急流加强,垂直上升运动增强,导致北极东北航道起始段海域降水异常偏多。

     

    Abstract: The initial section of the Arctic Northeast Passage is located in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea of China. The severe weather types that may threaten the safety of shipping in this area are mainly strong winds and heavy precipitation. Among them the cold air gale accompanied by the cold wave process, as well as the disastrous weather such as strong wind and heavy precipitation caused by weather systems such as tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones, have a great impact on shipping safety in this area. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global daily reanalysis data from 1991 to 2020, we analyze the energy propagation characteristics of the Rossby wave along the upper-level jet stream during the seaworthiness period (July to October) of the Arctic Northeast Passage and its impact on the weather in the initial section of the Arctic Northeast Passage, especially on heavy precipitation. The results are as follows. (1) The meridional wind along the 250 hPa westerly jet axis in the subtropical region of the Northern Hemisphere shows a zonal three-wave quasi-stationary Rossby wave pattern. (2) The atmospheric quasi-stationary Rossby wave source at 250 hPa is located in the Mediterranean region. The wave is excited here and propagates eastward along the jet stream. Although the wave energy is dissipated during the propagation process, continuous input of energy from the Mediterranean region maintains and strengthens the wave. (3) The absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the key area of the wave action flux divergence and the precipitation and wind speed in the initial section of the Arctic Northeast Passage is greater than 0.5. While the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the key area wave action flux index and the precipitation and wind speed is close to 0.9, indicating a strong correlation, it shows that the energy of the Rossby wave is concentrated and strengthened when it propagates along the upper jet stream, significantly influencing the precipitation and wind speed in the initial section of the Northeast Passage of the Arctic, thus triggering disastrous weather such as heavy precipitation and strong winds. (4) When the Rossby wave disturbance is stronger, the downstream propagation energy is also stronger. The westerly jet is then strengthened, and the vertical upward motion is enhanced. This results in an abnormal increase in precipitation in the initial section of the Arctic Northeast Passage.

     

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