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内蒙古东北部“21.7”罕见特大暴雨特征及极端性成因分析

Analysis of the characteristics and extreme causes of rare heavy rainfall in July 2021 in northeastern Inner Mongolia

  • 摘要: 2021年7月18日内蒙古东北部出现了一次罕见的特大暴雨事件(简称“21.7”极端暴雨过程),最大日降雨量达279.7 mm,刷新呼伦贝尔市有气象记录以来的极值,造成严重灾害。基于自动气象站观测资料、多普勒天气雷达资料、FY−4A卫星资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料,对该暴雨过程的特征及极端性成因进行诊断分析。结果表明:(1) “21.7”极端暴雨过程发生在低槽影响、副高呈块状北伸与中西伯利亚高原高压脊异常偏强形成东阻形势、西太平洋洋面台风“烟花”(2106号)活动的背景下,具有影响范围广、降雨时段集中、强度极端、致灾性强的特点。(2) 低空西南急流北上,一是形成较强的差动假相当位温平流,使得层结向对流不稳定发展,二是与近地层东风形成强垂直风切变,促进对流云团组织化,在低层切变线以南、地面中尺度辐合线以北不断触发MβCS云团并沿引导气流生消发展,是形成局地极端降雨的主要原因。(3) 短时强降水事件出现在中尺度对流云团冷云区TBB≤218 K移出方位梯度大值区边缘,雷达特征显示的强单体位于卫星云图上对流云团上风方向,可作为应用卫星、雷达产品监测和预报极端降雨事件的着眼点。(4) 与“19.8”历史相似极端个例对比分析发现,“21.7”极端暴雨过程更为罕见和特殊,水汽、能量和天气系统持续时间造成了极端程度差异,本次过程表现在有两条水汽输送带经渤海加强北上在内蒙古东北部汇集,且下游有经向度大的东阻形势使得天气系统移动缓慢。

     

    Abstract: On July 18, 2021, a rare heavy rainfall event (referred to as “21.7” extreme rainstorm process) occurred in the northeast of Inner Mongolia. The maximum daily rainfall reached 279.7 mm, breaking the historical record in Hulunbuir City and causing serious disasters. Based on automatic weather station observation data, Doppler weather radar data, FY−4A satellite data and ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25°×0.25°) of ECMWF, the characteristics of the rainstorm process and the causes of its extremes were diagnosed and analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) The "21.7" extreme rainstorm process occurred under the influence of a low trough, the east-blocking situation of the subtropical high stretching northward and the high pressure ridge over the Middle Siberian Plateau, and the activity of Typhoon In-Fa (No.2106) over the western Pacific Ocean. It has the characteristics of wide influence, concentrated rainfall periods, extreme intensity and strong disaster. (2) The northward movement of the low-level southwest jet stream forms a strong differential pseudo-equivalent potential temperature advection, which leads to the unstable development of convective stratification. It also forms strong vertical wind shear with the near-ground easterly wind, promoting the organization of convective cloud clusters. The continuously triggered MβCS cloud clusters on the southern side of the low-level shear line and the northern side of the surface mesoscale convergence line, and their development along the guiding airflow, are the main reasons for the formation of the local extreme rainstorm. (3) Short term heavy rainfall events occur in the cold cloud region of mesoscale convective cloud clusters, where the TBB is less than 218 K and moves out of the edge of the azimuth gradient. The radar characteristics show that the strong convective cell is located on the upwind side of the convective cloud cluster identified from the satellite cloud image, suggesting a focus for monitoring and predicting extreme rainfall events using satellite and radar products. (4) Compared with the "19.8" historical extreme case, it is found that the "21.7" extreme process is rarer and more unique. The water vapor, energy and the duration of weather systems result in differences in extreme levels. During the "21.7" process, two water vapor conveyor belts strengthen northward through the Bohai Sea and converge in the northeast of Inner Mongolia, and the weather system moves slowly due to the situation of downstream large longitude east blocking.

     

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