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近62 a华南“龙舟水”气候特征及变化

Climate characteristics and variation of the Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China in the past 62 years

  • 摘要: 每年端午节前后龙舟竞渡之时,是华南前汛期降水最多、最为集中的时段,容易引发严重洪涝灾害,并对早稻生产造成严重影响,称之为“龙舟水”。对华南“龙舟水”期间暴雨过程的频次和强度进行研究是当前防灾减灾的迫切需求。利用1961—2022年华南192个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料,采用EOF、线性趋势、M-K突变等方法,分析了华南“龙舟水”期间降水量的时空特征及变化;构建了一个表征华南“龙舟水”暴雨过程的综合强度指数,由此分析华南近62“a龙舟水”期间暴雨过程频次、强度以及“龙舟水”强度年景指数的特征和变化。结果表明,华南“龙舟水”一致性变化是其最主要的特点。1961—2022年“龙舟水”期间,华南共出现229次暴雨过程,平均每年3.7次。近62 a来华南区域平均“龙舟水”降水量和暴雨过程频次变化趋势不显著,但“龙舟水”强度年景指数以1.2·(10 a)-1的速率显著上升。评估得到近62 a华南“龙舟水”最强暴雨过程出现在2022年6月4—21日,华南“龙舟水”强年有4 a,分别出现在2022年、2020年、2008年和2006年。

     

    Abstract: The precipitation reaches its maximum and is most concentrated during the period of the first flood season in South China around the Dragon Boat Festival every year, which is usually referred to as"Dragon-boat Precipitation". The Dragon-boat Precipitation causes serious floods and exerts a serious impact on the production of early rice. It is urgent to study the frequency and intensity of rainstorms during the Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China for disaster prevention and reduction. Using daily precipitation data from 192 national meteorological observation stations in South China from 1961 to 2022, the spatiotemporal characteristics and variation of precipitation during the Dragon-boat Precipitation period in South China were analyzed with different methods, such as EOF analysis, linear trend analysis, and M-K mutation analysis. A comprehensive index representing the intensity of the Dragon-boat Precipitation rainstorm events in South China is constructed. Then, it is used to analyze the characteristics and variations of the number and intensity of the rainstorm events during the Dragon-boat Precipitation period in South China in the recent 62 years, as well as the annual index of the Dragon-boat Precipitation intensity. The results indicate that the consistent increase of the annual intensity index is the main characteristic of the Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China. During the Dragon-boat Precipitation period in the recent 62 years, there were 229 rainstorm events in South China, with an average of 3.7 times per year. In South China, the average precipitation and the number of rainstorm events did not change significantly, but the annual intensity index of Dragon-boat precipitation increased significantly at a rate of 1.2·(10 a)-1. The assessment showed that the strongest Dragon-boat precipitation rainstorm event in South China in the past 62 years would occur during June 4-21, 2022. The annual variation shows that there are four peaks of Dragon-boat Precipitation in South China, which occurred in 2022, 2020, 2008, and 2006.

     

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