高级搜索

朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性分析

Risk analysis of rainfall-induced disasters along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway

  • 摘要: 开展铁路沿线地区降雨致灾危险性分析,可为铁路部门精准防洪提供参考。基于朔黄铁路沿线国家级气象观测站1951—2022年日降水量数据,采用皮尔逊III型、耿贝尔和对数正态3种分布函数对铁路沿线地区历年最大日降水量重现期进行拟合,利用卡方检验筛选不同地区最优拟合结果,得到朔黄铁路沿线地区不同重现期年最大日降水量分布特征;利用2004—2023年国家级气象观测站和2018—2023年铁路部门气象站小时降水量数据,选取降雨过程的过程降水量、最大小时降水量、最大24 h降水量分别达到出巡、限速、封锁警戒阈值的年均频次和降水量极值等12个因子构建朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性评价指数;采用AHP-熵权法计算各因子的权重系数,最后得到朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性等级。结果表明:朔黄铁路小觉站-三汲站、博野站-蠡县站段沿线为降雨高危险路段,神池南站-东冶站段沿线为降雨低危险性路段。朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性等级分布与沿线地区不同重现期最大日降水量分布基本一致。

     

    Abstract: The risk analysis of rainfall-induced disasters along the railway can provide a reference for precise flood prevention for railway departments. Based on the daily precipitation data from national weather station along the Shuozhou-Huanghua railway from 1951 to 2022, this study used three distribution functions, Pearson III, Gumbel and Logarithmic normal distribution, to fit the recurrence period of annual maximum daily precipitation over the years along the railway respectively. The chi-square test was used to select the optimal fitting distribution model in different regions. Then the distribution characteristics of the maximum daily precipitation for different recurrence periods in each region along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway were obtained. Using the hourly precipitation data of the national meteorological stations from 2004 to 2023 and the meteorological stations deployed by the railway department from 2018 to 2023, the rainfall process and precipitation factors along the railway were counted. A total of 12 factors of rainfall process, including the annual average frequency and the extreme value of process precipitation, maximum hourly precipitation and maximum 24-hour precipitation that reaching the thresholds for patrol, speed limit and blockade warning respectively, were selected to construct the risk assessment index of rainfall-induced along Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway. Then the AHP-entropy weight method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient of each evaluation index factor. Finally, the hazard level of rainfall along Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway was obtained. The results show: The sections from Xibaipo Station to Sanji Station and Boye Station to Lixian Station along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway are the highest risk level of rainfall, while the sections from South of Shenchi Station to Dongye Station are the lowest risk level of rainfall, the assessment results are basically consistent with the distribution of maximum daily precipitation in different return periods.

     

/

返回文章
返回