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朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性分析

Risk analysis of rainfall-induced disasters along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway

  • 摘要: 开展铁路沿线地区降雨致灾危险性分析,可为铁路部门精准防洪提供参考依据。基于朔黄铁路沿线国家气象站1951—2022年日降水量数据,采用皮尔逊III型、耿贝尔和对数正态分布函数三种方法对铁路沿线地区历年最大日降水量重现期进行拟合,利用卡方检验筛选不同地区最优拟合结果,得到朔黄铁路沿线地区不同重现期年最大日降水量分布特征;基于2004—2023年国家气象站和2018—2023年铁路部门气象站小时降水量数据,选取降雨过程的过程降水量、最大小时降水量、最大24 h降水量分别达到出巡、限速、封锁警戒阈值的年均频次和降水量极值等12个因子构建朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性评价指数;采用AHP-熵权法计算各因子的权重系数,最后得到朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性等级。结果表明:朔黄铁路沿线小觉站-三汲站、博野站-蠡县站段为降雨高危险路段,神池南站-东冶站段为降雨低危险性路段。朔黄铁路沿线降雨致灾危险性等级分布与沿线地区不同重现期最大日降水量分布基本一致。

     

    Abstract: The risk analysis of rainfall-induced disasters along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway can provide reference for precise flood control for railway departments. Based on the daily precipitation data from 1951 to 2022, Pearson III distribution, Gumbel distribution and Logarithmic normal distribution were used to fit the return period of annual maximum daily precipitation of rainfall process over the years along the railway respectively, the chi square test was used to screen the optimal fitting distribution model in different regions, the distribution characteristics of the maximum daily precipitation for different return periods in each region along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway were obtained. Then based on the hourly precipitation data from 2004 to 2023 of the national meteorological stations and the data from 2018 to 2023 of the meteorological stations along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway set by the railway department, the rainfall process and precipitation factors along the railway were counted, the 12 factors of rainfall process, including the annual average frequency of process precipitation, maximum hourly precipitation and maximum 24-hour precipitation that reaching the thresholds for patrol, speed limit and blockade warning respectively, and the extreme value of precipitation were selected to construct the risk assessment index of rainfall-induced along Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway, the AHP and entropy weight method was used to calculate the index weight coefficient of each evaluation index factor, finally the hazard level of rainfall along Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway was obtained. The results show: The sections from Xibaipo Station to Sanji Station and Boye Station to Lixian Station along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway are the highest risk level of rainfall, while the sections from South of Shenchi Station to Dongye Station are the lowest risk level of rainfall, the assessment results are basically consistent with the distribution of maximum daily precipitation in different return periods.

     

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