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基于最优插值和地理加权回归的GPM降水数据降尺度研究——以四川省甘孜州为例

Downscaling study of GPM precipitation in Ganzi prefecture based on optimal interpolation and GWR method

  • 摘要: 卫星降水产品可提供重要的降水信息,对水循环、水资源利用保护等研究具有较为重要参考,但卫星降水数据受制于分辨率不高和精度不够的影响,使其在应用中存在不足。本研究在最优插值(OI)和地理加权回归(GWR)的基础上,以归一化植被指数(NDVI)和高程(DEM)为控制变量,对甘孜州GPM卫星降水数据进行降尺度处理,将卫星降水数据从0.1°×0.1°(GPM)降尺度到1 km×1 km (OIGPM),并利用多参数评估降尺度前后数据质量,在时空上对比降尺度数据与站点数据的差异。发现:(1) GPM和OIGPM降水数据均可反映空间降水分布特征,但GPM产品对降水存在低估,OIGPM更接近实况;(2) GWR融合降尺度降水可提升降水空间分辨率,并同时提高降水精度;(3)多项评估参数定量计算结果显示,通过最优插值和GWR两步方法获得的降水数据,其评估参数值均明显优于原始数据;(4)无残差修正、最优插值后的GPM降水数据(GOIGPM)在甘孜地区与实测数据相关系数更高、均方根误差更低,更具有适用性。

     

    Abstract: Satellite precipitation can provide important precipitation information and is currently an important reference for precipitation. However, satellite precipitation data is limited by resolution and accuracy, resulting in shortcomings in its application. In this study, based on the optimal interpolation and geographically weighted regression methods, the GPM satellite precipitation data in Ganzi Prefecture were downscaled and fused using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and digital elevation model (DEM) as the dependent variables. The satellite precipitation data was downscaled from 0.1°×0.1° to 1 km×1 km. The quality of the downscaled data was evaluated using multiple parameters, and the spatiotemporal differences between the downscaled data and station data were compared. The following findings were observed: (1) Both GPM and OIGPM precipitation data can reflect the spatial distribution of precipitation, but GPM tends to underestimate precipitation while OIGPM is more accurate. (2) The fusion downscaled precipitation using GWR can improve the spatial resolution of precipitation and enhance its accuracy. (3) Quantitative calculations of multiple evaluation parameters show that the downscaled precipitation data obtained through the optimal interpolation and GWR methods are significantly better than the original data. (4) The Optimal Interpolated GPM precipitation data (GOIGPM) without residual correction has a higher Correlation Coefficient and lower Root Mean Square Error with rainfall gauge data in the Ganzi region, making it more applicable.

     

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