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夏进一, 官莉. 2024: 基于随机森林算法优选FY-4B AGRI通道订正雨量产品研究. 暴雨灾害, 43(5): 598-606. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-194
引用本文: 夏进一, 官莉. 2024: 基于随机森林算法优选FY-4B AGRI通道订正雨量产品研究. 暴雨灾害, 43(5): 598-606. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-194
XIA Jinyi, GUAN Li. 2024: The study on precipitation products corrected by optimal selection FY-4B AGRI channel based on random forest algorithm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 43(5): 598-606. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-194
Citation: XIA Jinyi, GUAN Li. 2024: The study on precipitation products corrected by optimal selection FY-4B AGRI channel based on random forest algorithm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 43(5): 598-606. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-194

基于随机森林算法优选FY-4B AGRI通道订正雨量产品研究

The study on precipitation products corrected by optimal selection FY-4B AGRI channel based on random forest algorithm

  • 摘要: 为提高卫星反演地面定量降水产品的精度,基于2022年6月1日—7月31日FY-4B静止轨道辐射成像仪AGRI(Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager)中国区域一级辐射观测产品、二级云检测产品、二级定量降水估计业务产品及国家站雨量观测,利用随机森林算法分别建立了白天和夜间的降雨有无判断模型和降雨量反演模型,评估了AGRI一级辐射观测15个通道重要性,筛选白天和夜间适合判断和反演地面雨量的优选通道并建立各自优选通道判断和反演模型,最后依据各自优选通道模型反演2022年8月的降水并与FY-4B AGRI的二级定量降水估计业务产品进行检验对比,结果表明:(1) 白天中波红外通道7和8重要性较低,白天判断和反演模型不使用通道7和8,夜间判断和反演模型使用所有红外通道,反演的降水量与国家站雨量观测最接近;(2) 白天和夜间优选通道判断模型对有无降水的判断均优于FY-4B降水业务产品,尤其是命中率大大提高,但两种优选通道雨量反演模型反演雨量都偏多,白天反演雨量的准确率高于夜间;(3) 白天和夜间两种优选通道雨量反演模型反演雨量的误差均小于FY-4B降水业务产品,降水业务产品和两种优选通道模型反演结果均高估小雨雨量、低估大雨雨量,降水强度越强低估越严重;(4) 对于优选通道反演模型不同量级降水的反演,除夜间暴雨外,白天和夜间其他量级降水的均方根误差均较降水业务产品有所提升,其中小到中雨的精度提升最明显。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of quantitative precipitation products derived from regional satellite observations, the level 1 radiation observation products, level 2 cloud detection products, and level 2 quantitative precipitation estimation operational products from the FY-4B geostationary radiation imager AGRI (Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager), and national rain gauge observations collected between June 1 and July 31, 2022, in China were utilized in this study. The random forest algorithm was employed to establish separate models for predicting the presence or absence of rainfall and estimating rainfall amounts during the day and at night. The importance of 15 channels from the AGRI level 1 radiation observations was evaluated, and suitable channels for determining and estimating ground rainfall during the day and night were selected. Judgment and retrieval models based on these optimal channels were then created. Finally, using the models based on their respective optimal channels, precipitation for August 2022 was estimated and compared with the FY-4B AGRI level 2 quantitative precipitation estimation operational products. The results are as follows: (1) Channels 7 and 8 in the mid-wave infrared range were of lower importance during the day, and the daytime judgment and retrieval models did not use these channels. However, the nighttime models employed all infrared channels, and the retrieval precipitation closely matched the national gauge observations. (2) The optimal channel judgment models for both day and night outperformed the FY-4B precipitation operational products in identifying whether precipitation occurred, particularly showing a significant improvement in hit rates. Nevertheless, rainfall retrieval from both optimal channel retrieval models tended to overestimate rainfall amounts, with daytime retrieval precipitation being more accurate than nighttime. (3) The errors of rainfall retrieval from both daytime and nighttime optimal channel models were both lower than those from the FY-4B precipitation operational products. Both the precipitation operational products and the two optimal channel model estimates tended to overestimate light rainfall and underestimate heavy rainfall, with the underestimation becoming more severe as precipitation intensity increased. (4) For the retrieval of different precipitation magnitudes using optimal channel models, improvements in root mean square errors were observed for nearly all levels of rainfall except for nighttime heavy rain, with the most significant accuracy enhancement seen in the small to moderate rainfall range.

     

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