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云微物理参数化方案对台风期间放射性物质扩散的影响

The impact of cloud microphysical parameterization schemes on the diffusion of radioactive material during typhoon

  • 摘要: 快速和准确地预测核电站事故发生后放射性物质在大气中的扩散规律,可为科学地作出辐射防护决策提供有力技术支撑。采用WRF和FLEXPART-WRF模式,以中国浙江省某核电站假想事故情况为例进行虚拟模拟,探究WSM3、Thompson、CAM5.1三种云微物理参数化方案(简称三种方案)对台风期间放射性物质Cs-137扩散模拟的影响,并分析Cs-137浓度的输运和扩散特征。结果表明:三种方案模拟的风场和降雨与观测基本吻合,CAM5.1方案总体模拟效果最好。Cs-137浓度输运和扩散特征受气象场模拟结果的影响较大,不同云微物理参数化方案模拟结果出现明显差异。其中CAM5.1方案近地面浓度扩散范围最大,与降雨覆盖面最广相匹配;三种方案干沉降变化范围基本一致;Cs-137主要受湿沉降影响,三种方案最大湿沉降在模拟开始后的12 h内快速增加,随后趋于稳定,沉降峰值以Thompson方案最大,WSM3方案居中,CAM5.1方案最小。

     

    Abstract: Accurate and prompt prediction of radioactive material dispersion in the atmosphere after a nuclear power plant accident is essential for crafting effective radiation protection strategies. This research leverages the WRF and FLEXPART-WRF models to conduct a virtual simulation of a hypothetical nuclear incident in a power station located in Zhejiang Province, China. The study scrutinizes the effects of WSM3, Thompson, and CAM5.1 three cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on the modeling of Cs-137 dispersion during typhoon conditions and examines the transport and diffusion patterns of Cs-137 concentrations. The results are as follows. The simulated wind patterns and precipitation from the three schemes closely match the empirical observations, with the CAM5.1 scheme achieving the highest overall simulation accuracy. The transport and diffusion profiles of Cs-137 concentrations are heavily influenced by the simulated meteorological conditions, exhibiting significant variations among the different microphysics schemes. The CAM5.1 scheme, in particular, displays the broadest dispersion of near-surface concentrations, corresponding to the widest spread of rainfall. The variations in dry deposition are relatively uniform across all three schemes. Cs-137 concentrations are primarily driven by wet deposition, which peaks sharply within the initial 12 hours of the simulation and then levels off. The Thompson scheme experiences the highest wet deposition peak, the WSM3 scheme falls in the middle, and the CAM5.1 scheme exhibits the lowest peak.

     

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