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一种改进的数值模式降水预报时间降尺度方法

An improved time downscaling method for numerical model precipitation forecast

  • 摘要: 数值模式降水预报时间降尺度的目的是将较低时间分辨率的模式降水预报通过统计方法降尺度到较高的时间分辨率上,以近似代替较高时间分辨率的模式降水预报。将现有的基于三次样条插值逐点拆分、位置订正、光流动态重构、频率匹配、逐点总量约束的网格降水预报时间降尺度方法(以下简称为“现有方法”)应用于未经订正的数值模式降水预报时,其中的订正步骤受制于数值模式预报的总降水量的约束,所生成的降水预报时间降尺度产品在强度上存在明显的不合理波动。因此,改进设计了一种适用于数值模式降水预报的时间降尺度方法(以下简称为“改进方法”),包含分段三次Hermite插值逐点拆分、金字塔LK光流动态重构、均衡的逐点总量约束三个步骤,不依赖于降水实况订正,且保留了原始模式的系统偏差。利用2020年4—10月中国气象局华东区域中心模式逐1 h降水预报场和其累加生成的逐3 h降水预报场,分别将其作为数值模式降水预报时间降尺度方法的验证场和输入场,评估对比了单纯的逐点拆分、“现有方法”和“改进方法”的时间降尺度效果,并使用匀速运动的圆形雨带理想模型和真实个例分析分别加以验证。结果表明:(1)“改进方法”所生成的逐1 h降水预报在强度分布上更加均衡合理,短时强降水的平均TS评分和BIAS偏差的波动幅度仅为“现有方法”的27%和9%。(2) 使用“改进方法”所生成的逐1 h降水预报与真实的数值模式生成的逐1 h降水预报场更为相似,平均TS评分和BIAS偏差幅度分别提升13%和下降31%以上,且在理想模型中均方根误差相比于“现有方法”总体下降10%。改进的数值模式降水预报时间降尺度方法同时满足运动合理、强度波动合理和降水总量约束的基本要求,可通用于任意网格降水预报的时间降尺度。

     

    Abstract: The goal of time downscaling for numerical model precipitation forecast is to downscale the model precipitation forecast with lower time resolution to higher time resolution through statistical methods, which serve as an approximate substitution of model precipitation forecast with higher time resolution. Currently, the steps of split by point with cubic spline interpolation, position calibration, optical flow dynamic reconstruction, frequency matching, and total amount constraint by point (hereinafter referred to as"existing method") are applied to the existing time downscaling method for grid precipitation forecast. However, when applying them to uncalibrated numerical model precipitation forecast, the calibration steps are limited by the total precipitation amount constraint, leading to obviously unreasonable fluctuation in intensity for the generated precipitation forecast time downscaling product. Therefore, an improved time downscaling method for numerical model precipitation forecast is designed (hereinafter referred to as"improved method"). The"improved method"includes the steps of split by point based on piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation, pyramid LK optical flow dynamic reconstruction, and balanced total amount constraint by point, which does not depend on calibration with precipitation observation and retains the systematic deviation of the original model. In this study, the 1 h precipitation forecast field and the cumulative 3 h precipitation forecast field of the CMA-SH9 model from April to October 2020 were used as the validation field and input field of the numerical model precipitation forecast time downscaling method, respectively. The effects of time downscaling methods of simple split by point, "existing method", and"improved method"were evaluated, compared, and verified by the ideal model of a circular rain belt with constant speed and real case analysis. The results are as follows. (1) The 1 h precipitation forecast generated by the"improved method"is more balanced and reasonable in intensity distribution. The amplitude of fluctuation of average TS and BIAS for short-time heavy precipitation is only 27% and 9% of the"existing method", respectively. (2) The 1 h precipitation forecast generated by the"improved method"is more similar to the 1 h precipitation forecast field generated by the real numerical dynamic model. The average TS and BIAS improved by more than 13% and reduced by more than 31%, respectively, and the root mean square error generally reduced by 10% compared with the"existing method"in the ideal model. The improved numerical model time downscaling method for precipitation forecast meets the basic requirements of reasonable movement, reasonable intensity fluctuation, and total precipitation constraint at the same time, and can be generally used for time downscaling of any grid precipitation forecast.

     

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