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青藏高原东侧复杂地形区极端降水研究进展

A review of the studies on extreme precipitation in the complex terrain region on the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 青藏高原东侧地形地貌多变,海拔高度起伏剧烈,陡峭而复杂地形下极端降水带来的气象灾害与地质次生灾害直接威胁着高原与下游地区,且这种独特的地形与地理位置,为极端降水的研究带来了巨大挑战。围绕青藏高原东侧复杂地形区极端降水,对近10 a降水数据观测分析新方法、极端降水气候演变特征和协同机制、云-降水物理特征及预报模拟和气候预估等方面取得的新进展进行了回顾,并就高原复杂地形区极端降水研究今后值得关注和思考的科学问题,从机器学习方法与多源降水数据结合以及高原地区降水资料的适用性研究、极端降水的气候变化特征与大气环流异常的机理研究、高原地区的云宏观特征和云微物理特征研究、气候模式历史模拟性能的评估及对未来极端降水模拟的预估研究等方面进行了展望。

     

    Abstract: The eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau is characterized by its variable terrain with dramatic elevation changes. The extreme precipitation in areas with steep and complex terrain can directly threaten the Tibetan Plateau and downstream regions with meteorological and subsequent geological disasters. The unique topography and geographical position of this area bring significant challenges to understanding extreme precipitation. For extreme precipitation in the complex terrain region on the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau, a review of recent advances over the past decade was achieved in this paper. Different research areas are summarized, including precipitation observations and analysis using new methods, characteristics of climate evolution and synergistic mechanisms of extreme precipitation, cloud-precipitation physical characteristics and forecast simulations, as well as climate projections. On the scientific issues worth paying attention to and considering in the future of extreme precipitation research in complex terrain areas of the Tibetan Plateau, this paper also looks forward to several aspects of the related studies, such as combining machine learning methods with multi-source precipitation data and the applicability of precipitation data, climate change characteristics of extreme precipitation events and the mechanisms related to local weather systems and large-scale circulation anomalies, cloud macroscopic characteristics and microphysical characteristics over the Tibetan Plateau, evaluation of climate model performance for historical periods and projection of future extreme precipitation simulation.

     

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