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CMIP6气候模式对湖北省极端气候指数模拟能力评估及未来预估

Evaluation and projection of extreme climate indices over Hubei province by CMIP6 climate models

  • 摘要: 基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)的14个全球气候模式降尺度数据和CN05.1格点气象观测资料,评估了CMIP6气候模式对湖北地区15个极端气候指数的模拟能力,并预估了在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种共享社会经济路径情景下极端气候指数未来变化趋势。结果表明:(1) 模式能一定程度上刻画极端气候指数的时空演变特征,对极端气温的模拟结果优于极端降水,多模式集合平均优于大部分模式或代表模式的平均水平。(2) 模式可能低估极端低温指数和极端降水指数,高估极端高温指数,模拟误差随极端性的增强而增大。(3) 未来湖北省极端高温指数显著增大,鄂中和鄂东增幅较其它区域更大;极端低温指数显著减小,鄂西和鄂东北减小程度更明显。(4) 未来湖北省极端降水强度与频次均增加,鄂东和鄂南局部地区增幅更大;干旱指数呈先减轻后加剧的趋势,鄂西北地区21世纪远期(2081—2100年)极端干旱加剧更明显。(5) 湖北省大部地区极端高温指数、极端降水指数和干旱指数在21世纪远期增幅达到最大,SSP5-8.5情景较SSP2-4.5情景下高值区域扩大、增幅更大。

     

    Abstract: Based on the downscaled data of 14 global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the meteorological observation dataset of CN05.1, we evaluated the simulation ability of CMIP6 models for 15 extreme climate indices over Hubei province, and projected the future trends under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results are as follows. (1) All of the models can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal evolution of the extreme climate indices, and the simulation results of extreme temperature indices are better than those of extreme precipitation indices. In addition, the ensemble mean of multiple models is better than most of the models or represents the average simulation ability of the models. (2) Models may overestimate strong extreme warm indices, underestimate extreme cold indices and extreme precipitation indices, and the bias will increase with the extreme of the indices becoming greater. (3) The extreme warm indices in Hubei province will increase significantly in the future, and the growth rate in central and Eastern Hubei will be higher than that in other regions; Extreme cold indices decreased significantly, especially in Western and northeastern Hubei. (4) The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation indices all show an increasing trend, especially in Eastern and southern Hubei, however, the drought indices show a trend of decreasing at first and then aggravating, and the extreme drought indices in Northwest Hubei in the late 21st century will be more obvious. (5) In most regions, the growth rate of extreme warm indices, extreme precipitation indices and drought indices will reach the maximum in the late 21st century. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the area of high-value will be larger and the increase will become greater than those under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.

     

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