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基于灰色关联度等方法的江苏雷暴大风灾害风险评估与区划

Risk assessment and zoning of thunderstorm-gale disasters in Jiangsu Province based on grey correlation degree and other methods

  • 摘要: 江苏省雷暴大风灾害频发,开展雷暴大风灾害风险评估是提高当地气象防灾减灾能力的重要手段。利用2008—2022年江苏省国家和区域气象观测站逐日气象资料及其所辖市县灾情信息,结合河网密度、数字高程等地理信息数据,选取最大风速、日最大降水量、冰雹发生频率、人口密度、地均GDP、农田面积和安全房屋面积比这7项指标,利用灰色关联度分析和通径分析方法,筛选确定最大风速、日最大降水量和冰雹发生频率作为雷暴大风灾害致灾因子及其权重,建立雷暴大风灾害危险性评估模型,结合孕灾环境敏感性及人口、经济、农作物和安全房屋比等承灾体暴露性,由层次分析法分析获得各项评估指标权重,获得雷暴大风灾害风险指数模型,得到江苏雷暴大风灾害风险区划结果。结果表明:(1) 江苏雷暴大风危险性较高-高等级区域主要集中在徐州大部、宿迁中部及淮安和泰州的局部地区。(2) 江苏雷暴大风灾害较高-高风险区域分布在淮北西部、沿淮和江淮之间中部地区。该风险区划结果基本反映了江苏省雷暴大风灾害的潜在风险。

     

    Abstract: Thunderstorm-gale disasters are frequent in the Jiangsu Province. It is an important technical means to improve the local meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities by carrying out risk assessment of thunderstorm-gale disasters. In this paper, multiple types of data were used to focus on the risk research of the thunderstorm-gale disasters in Jiangsu Province, by adopting the Grey correlation degree, path analysis, and AHP methods. The various data contain daily meteorological data from national stations and regional stations in Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2022, disaster information from cities and counties, as well as geographic information data such as river network density and digital elevation, and seven indicators were selected for analysis, which were including maximum wind speed, daily maximum precipitation, frequency of hail occurrence, population density, per capital GDP, farmland area, and safe housing area ratio. A thunderstorm-gale disaster risk assessment model is established by using grey relational analysis and path analysis methods, combined with the sensitivity of disaster prone environments and the exposure analysis of disaster bearing bodies such as population, economy, crops, and safe housing ratio, to obtain the risk zoning results for thunderstorm-gale disasters in Jiangsu. The results are as follows. (1) The higher-level dangerous area of thunderstorm-gales disasters in Jiangsu Province was mainly concentrated in most areas of Xuzhou, central Suqian, and some parts of Huai'an and Taizhou. (2) The high risk areas of thunderstorm-gale disasters in Jiangsu were distributed in the western part of Huaibei, the central region between the Huai River and the Yangtz River, and the zoning results were consistent with the actual disaster situation highly. The risk zoning results could reflect the potential risks of thunderstorm-gale disasters in Jiangsu Province.

     

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