Abstract:
Based on hourly precipitation observation data from 70 basic stations in Jiangsu Province over the past 20 years (2001—2020), with the 98th percentile as threshold, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation during the Meiyu period in different regions are analyzed using the violinplot method. The results are as follows. (1) The extreme hourly precipitation in the province shows a unimodal positively skewed distribution, with a concentration of 22.7 mm and a maximum value of 184.7 mm, which spans a wide range. The frequency percentage gradually increases from the north to the south. Stations with a higher frequency often have more annual average Meiyu precipitation. (2) The maximum hourly precipitation is unevenly distributed across multiple centers throughout the province. When the precipitation distribution of the station is with a high average or concentration, or a large standard deviation, the extreme is often stronger. (3) The total and average extreme hourly precipitation at each station in the province show a significant positive skewed distribution in both annual and daily variations, corresponding to the precipitation frequency. But in the years when the precipitation frequency probability of the stations is abnormally high and abnormally high frequency exists at a single station, the precipitation probability of the stations tending towards extreme is also higher and the extreme is stronger, which is exactly opposite to the daily variation. The areas with higher precipitation frequency and amount of extreme hourly precipitation are located south of the Yangtze River and the occurrence years are consistent well with the El Niño years. (4) The sudden intense extreme hourly precipitation usually occurs from noon to the next early morning in Huaibei region, high frequency usually occurs in the early morning in the area between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River, and in the forenoon in the region south of the Yangtze River. The peak time of the extreme precipitation in the area between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River appears earlier than that south of the Yangtze River.