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2023年梅雨期苏州首轮大暴雨的两个准静止阶段特征及成因对比

Comparison of the characteristics and causes of the two quasi-static stages of the first round of heavy rainstrom in Suzhou during the Meiyu Season in 2023

  • 摘要: 2023年6月18日上午和6月19日傍晚至上半夜梅雨带南北摆动,出现两个准静止时段,受其影响,苏州市出现首轮大暴雨过程,造成主城区积涝严重, 85.8万人的生活受到影响。本文利用常规高空、地面、多普勒天气雷达、风廓线雷达及ERA5再分析等多源观测资料,对比分析两个准静止阶段在环流背景、环境条件、锋生机制、雷达回波演变和形成准静止成因等方面异同点,并建立概念模型。结果表明:(1) 两个阶段强降雨均具有强降雨时段集中、降雨效率高、累计降雨量大等特点。强降雨第一阶段为准静止梅雨锋锋面降雨,空间重叠度高、影响范围广;第二阶段发生在高空槽后弱冷空气渗透、低空冷式切变线南压过程中,中尺度对流系统(MCS)活跃、局地降雨强度大。(2) 第一阶段东西向带状准静止梅雨锋上出现多个β中尺度对流系统,在高空强西风引导气流作用下向东偏南方向传播形成“列车效应”;第二阶段梅雨锋云系上多个MCS组织成中尺度对流复合体,MCS不断在移动方向后侧新生,形成准静止后向传播,强雷达回波质心低,梯度大,结构密实,风廓线雷达上低空急流向下传播及中层风场扰动对极端小时雨强有一定预警作用。(3) 有组织的MCS、地面准静止梅雨锋维持、低空切变、入流增强引起散度项锋生,是形成第一阶段“列车效应”准静止雨带的主要原因。切变线上空强烈的上升运动与次级环流上升支叠加、西南急流维持和地面中尺度低压生成的有利配置,使得第二阶段MCS表现出后向传播的准静止特征。

     

    Abstract: The Meiyu front oscillated north-south, resulting in two quasi-stationary periods on the morning of June 18, 2023 and in the evening of June 19, 2023. Affected by this, the first stage of heavy rainstorm process occurs in Suzhou, causing severe waterlogging in the main urban area, affecting the lives of 858,000 residents. This paper uses multi-source data such as Jiangsu automatic station data, radar and wind profile data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) reanalysis data. Through mesoscale analysis and physical quantity diagnosis methods, it compares and analyzes the similarities and differences between the two quasi-stationary stages in terms of precipitation characteristics, circulation background, environmental conditions, frontogenesis mechanisms, radar echo evolution, and the causes of quasi-stationarity, and establish a conceptual model. The results are as follows. (1) Both stages of heavy rainfall have the characteristics of concentrated heavy rainfall periods, high rainfall efficiency, and large cumulative rainfall. The first stage of heavy rainfall is quasi-stationary frontal rainfall of the plum rain front, with high spatial overlap and wide impact range. The second stage occurs during the process of weak cold air infiltration behind the upper trough and the southward pressure of the low-altitude cold shear line. Mesoscale convective systems are active and local rainfall intensity is large. (2) In the first stage, multiple β mesoscale convective systems(MCS) propagate eastward and southwards on the east-west belt shaped quasi stationary Meiyu front, forming a train effect under the guidance of strong westerly winds at high altitudes. In the second stage of the Meiyu front cloud system, multiple MCSs are organized into mesoscale convective complexes, which continuously regenerate behind the moving direction, forming quasi stationary backward propagation. The strong echo centroid is low, the gradient is large, the structure is dense. The low-level jet stream propagation and mid-level wind field disturbance on the wind profile radar have a certain warning effect on extreme hourly rainfall intensity. (3) The main reasons for the formation of the first stage of the "train effect" quasi-static rain belt are the organized MCS, maintenance of the ground quasi-static plum rain front, low altitude shear, and enhanced inflow leading to the generation of divergence fronts. The strong upward movement above the shear line, the superposition of the rising branch of the secondary circulation, the maintenance of the southwest jet stream, and the favorable configuration of the generation of mesoscale low pressure on the ground make the second stage MCS exhibit quasi stationary characteristics of backward propagation.

     

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