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基于低温-雨雪-冻雨综合强度指数的湖北省冰冻事件分型及灾损评估

Typing and disaster loss evaluation of freezing events based on the comprehensive intensity index of low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing in Hubei Province

  • 摘要: 低温雨雪冰冻是一种复合型气候事件,极端低温雨雪冰冻事件发生频率低,但造成的影响往往十分严重,开展低温雨雪冰冻事件演变特征研究对有效防御和减轻灾害影响具有重要意义。利用湖北省1981—2024年逐日气象观测资料,从低温、雨雪、冻雨等3个方面遴选指标,构建大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件综合评估模型;依据致灾因子类型、承灾体受灾特征对事件分型并排序;结合历史灾损数据分析了湖北省1981年以来大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件的致灾特征。结果表明:(1) 近44 a湖北省共出现64次大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件,平均每年出现1.5次,1月出现频率最高,约占42%,其次是2月,约占34%。(2) 湖北省大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件判别为六大分型,其中雨雪为主型占40%,低温雨雪冻雨型占31%,低温雨雪型占16%,其他类型共占13%,最强10次事件均属于低温雨雪冻雨型。(3) 湖北省因低温雨雪冰冻灾害造成的直接经济损失总体呈增加趋势,但直接经济损失占GDP比重呈下降趋势。(4) 湖北省大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻事件“综合强度指数-直接经济损失”相关关系呈幂指数分布,当事件综合强度指数超过1.85时,直接经济损失迅速增加。

     

    Abstract: Low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing is a complex climate event. Although extreme low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events occur infrequently, they often cause serious impacts. Researching evolutionary characteristics of low temperature, rainfall/ snowfall and freezing events is of great significance for effective defense and mitigation of disaster impacts. By using daily meteorological observation data from 1981 to 2024 in Hubei and selecting indicators from three aspects: low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing, a comprehensive evaluation model for large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events was established. According to the types of disaster-causing factors and the disaster characteristics of the affected bodies, these events were classified and ranked. Combined with the historical disaster data, the disaster characteristics of large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei since 1981 were then analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) There have been a total of 64 large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei in the past 44 years, with an average of 1.5 occurrences per year. January has the highest frequency of occurrence, accounting for about 42%, followed by February, accounting for about 34%. (2) The large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei are classified into six types, with rain and snow type accounting for 40%, low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing type accounting for 31%, and low temperature, rain, and snow type accounting for 16%, other types accounting for a total of 13%. The strongest 10 events all belong to low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing type. (3) The direct economic losses caused by low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing disasters in Hubei have shown an overall increasing trend, but the proportion of direct economic losses to GDP has shown a certain decreasing trend, with a relatively small proportion since 2012. (4) The correlation between the comprehensive intensity index and direct economic losses of large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei follows a power curve distribution. When the comprehensive intensity index of the event exceeds 1.85, the direct economic losses increase rapidly.

     

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