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沁河流域暖季极端小时降水时空特征分析

Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation during the warm season in the Qinhe River Basin

  • 摘要: 基于2004—2023年暖季(5—9月)黄河中游沁河流域10个国家气象站逐小时降水观测资料,分析了极端小时降水的阈值、强度、年均频次及对降水贡献率等要素的时空变化特征,并和2018—2023年5—9月该流域96个省级气象站极端小时降水要素特征进行比较,以验证低密度国家气象站极端降水观测的代表性。结果表明:(1) 国家气象站20 mm·h−1以上极端小时降水阈值、强度、年均频次及对暖季降水的贡献率均呈现中上游小于下游地区的空间分布,但降水强度、频次和贡献率的变化趋势并不显著。(2) 国家气象站极端小时降水特征的月变化呈单峰型,7月极端小时降水强度最大、频次最高、贡献率最大。日变化分布呈双峰型,09时和13时发生频次最高,01时发生频次最低,白天与夜间降雨强度相差不大。50 mm·h−1以上的极端小时强降水出现在6—8月,7月频次最高,05时和07时出现次数最多。(3) 省级气象站20 mm·h−1以上极端小时降水阈值、强度和贡献率的空间分布和日变化与国家气象站降水资料一致,只是50 mm·h−1以上的极端小时强降水峰值出现时段有所差异,因此长时间序列、低空间密度的国家气象站极端降水观测资料具有代表性,可为沁河流域极端小时降水预报预警、流域气候分析及气候可行性论证等工作提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data from 10 national meteorological stations in the Qinhe River basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River during the warm season (May-September) from 2004 to 2023, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics in extreme hourly precipitation of thresholds, intensity, annual frequency, and contribution rates to total precipitation in the basin during the warm season were analyzed. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics were compared with the results from data analysis utilizing information from 96 provincial meteorological stations in the basin during 2018 to 2023 to verify the representativeness of the national meteorological station data.The results are as follows. (1) The spatial distribution characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation exceeding 20 mm·h−1 threshold, including intensity, annual average frequency, and contribution to precipitation at national meteorological stations during the warm season, are lower in the middle and upper reaches than those in the lower reaches. However, the trends of change in precipitation intensity, frequency, and contribution rates are not significant. (2) The monthly variation at national meteorological stations showed a unimodal pattern, with the highest extreme hourly precipitation intensity, frequency, and contribution rate occurring in July. The diurnal variation distribution presents a bimodal pattern, with the highest frequency occurring at 09:00 BT and 13:00 BT, and the lowest frequency occurring at 01:00 BT,while rainfall intensity showed little difference between daytime and nighttime. Extreme hourly heavy precipitation exceeding 50 mm·h−1 usually occurs between June and August, with the highest frequency of occurrence in July, and the most frequent occurrences at 05:00 BT and 07:00 BT. (3) The spatial distribution and the diurnal variation of extreme hourly precipitation exceeding 20 mm·h−1 at provincial stations thresholds, including intensity, and contribution rates, as well as those results derived from national meteorological station data. However, the peak precipitation occurrence times of extreme hourly heavy precipitation peaks above 50 mm·h−1 differed slightly. Therefore, the analysis results based on the long-term, low-density national station data are representative, and can provide reliable references for extreme hourly precipitation forecasting and warning, basin climate analysis, climate feasibility studies, and other related work in the Qinhe River basin.

     

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