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2024年春运期两次极端雨雪冰冻天气过程对比分析

Comparison of two extreme rainfall/snowfall and freezing weather events during the Spring Festival transportation period in 2024

  • 摘要: 2024年1月31日—2月6日和2月19—25日,我国先后出现两次大范围持续性低温雨雪冰冻天气过程(分别简称过程1和过程2),对春运造成严重影响。利用多源观测和ERA5再分析资料对两次过程进行对比,重点分析了南方地区雨雪天气强度及冻雨和降水相态差异的原因。结果表明:(1) 两次过程的累计降水量均有一定极端性,并伴有复杂的降水相态变化,冻雨强度和范围为2009年以来最大;过程1冻雨强度和积雪深度大于过程2,过程2冻雨范围、降水和对流强度大于过程1。(2) 两次过程均发生在高空槽与低层冷空气共同作用的环流背景下,南支槽前和西太平洋副热带高压外围的西南急流稳定维持且较常年显著偏强,为两次极端雨雪冰冻天气过程提供了持续而充沛的水汽条件;暖湿气流在冷垫上的爬升以及低层风场的水平辐合是产生雨雪天气的重要动力机制,逆温层和融化层的稳定维持是出现冻雨及降水相态反复变化的关键原因。(3) 两次过程不同点主要在于,过程1冻结层内温度多在-4~0 ℃,高于过程2,相对而言更有利于形成冻雨;逆温区狭长且少动,冻雨影响范围集中,强度大;过程2副热带高压更偏西偏北,有利于西南暖湿急流加强和北推,同时强寒潮导致冷垫较强,冷暖交汇有利于上升运动发展和降水增强;过程2融化层维持时间更长,云水含量较高,但冻结层内温度低,更有利于出现冰粒或湿雪。

     

    Abstract: From January 31 to February 6 (P1, hereinafter) and from February 19 to February 25, 2024 (P2, hereinafter), China experienced two large-scale and sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall, and freezing weather events, which seriously affected the Spring Festival transportation. This paper compared the two events using multi-source observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, with a particular focus on the mechanisms of the differences in precipitation intensity and the phases between rainfall, snowfall, and freezing rain in southern China. The results are as follows. (1) Both events exhibit extreme features in total precipitation and are accompanied by complex phase changes, with the range and the intensity of the freezing rain being the largest since 2009. Compared to P2, the intensity of freezing rain and the snow depth in P1 are greater. However, the range of freezing rain, the precipitation amount, and the convective intensity in P2 are greater. (2) Both the circulation patterns of the two events are affected by the high-altitude trough and low-level cold air. The southwest jet stream in front of the trough and the periphery of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is stable and significantly stronger than normal, providing sustained and abundant water vapor. The ascent of warm-humid air over a cold cushion and the horizontal convergence of low-level winds are crucial dynamic mechanisms for snowfall and rainfall. Besides, the stable maintenance of the inversion layer and the melting layer is the key to the occurrence of freezing rain and the changes in the precipitation phase. (3) Different mechanisms also exist in the two events. In P1, the air temperature in the freezing layer is between -4~0 ℃ in most areas, which is higher than that in P2 and is more conducive to the formation of freezing rain. In P2, the inversion zone is wide but moves more quickly, with a larger range while weaker freezing rain. In P2, the WPSH is located further northwest, favoring the strengthening and northward shift of the southwest warm-humid jet. Meanwhile, the strong cold wave also leads to a stronger cold cushion. The interaction between the cold and warm airs is conducive to the development of upward movement and the enhancement of precipitation. The longer duration of the melting layer leads to more cloud water content, but the temperature in the freezing layer is lower, which is beneficial for the formation of ice particles or wet snow.

     

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