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1980—2020年4-9月湘赣浙闽地区日极端降水分布特征研究

Study on the distribution characteristics of daily extreme precipitation in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian province from April to September 1980-2020

  • 摘要: 为揭示湘赣浙闽复杂地形下极端降水分布特征,提升该区域灾害预警能力,基于湘赣浙闽地区1980—2020年4—9月国家气象观测站、2016—2020年4—9月区域气象观测站逐日降水与ERA5再分析资料,采用百分位法确定日极端降水阈值,并分析了日极端降水的阈值、强度、频次及其对总降水贡献率的时空分布特征,最后根据已发表成果讨论了日极端降水分布特征和地质、次生灾害分布的关系。结果表明:(1)湘赣浙闽地区日极端降水的阈值与强度大值区集中于福建东部沿海、鄱阳湖平原及湘西丘陵,低值区位于湘中盆地与浙闽丘陵北部;6月强度达峰值,4月最弱。(2)湘赣浙闽地区日极端降水频次呈东南多、西北少,山区显著高于平原;日极端降水对总降水贡献率空间分布福建东北沿海最高(>35%),南岭地区最低(<20%);月变化显示,5—6月湘西丘陵与武夷山区贡献率最高,超过40%,8—9月贡献率高值区位于浙闽沿海。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the distribution characters of the extreme precipitation, enhance regional disaster warning capabilities in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian provinces of south China with complex terrains, this study identify the daily extreme precipitation thresholds by percentile methods, and analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of the daily extreme precipitation thresholds, intensity, frequency, and the contribution to the total precipitation based on the ERA5 reanalysis and precipitation data from national meteorological stations in April to September from 1980 to 2020 and regional meteorological stations in April to September from 2016 to 2020 in the region of Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian provinces. Finally, the relationship between the characteristics of daily extreme precipitation distribution and the distribution of geological and secondary disasters was discussed based on the published results. The results are as follows. (1) The daily extreme precipitation occurs mostly in eastern Fujian coastal areas, Poyang Lake Plain, and western Hunan hills, while light rains occur often in central Hunan Basin and northern Zhejiang-Fujian hills. Intensity peaks occur in June, with April showing the weakest intensity. (2) The daily extreme precipitation occurs more frequently in southeastern regions dominated by mountains than over plains in northwestern areas. The contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation show maximum (>35%) in northeastern Fujian coastal areas and minimum (<20%) in Nanling region. In June-July extreme precipitation contributes most to total precipitation in western Hunan hills and Wuyi Mountain Range (over 40%), while in August-September, extreme precipitation dominates along Zhejiang-Fujian coast.

     

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