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1980—2020年4—9月湘赣浙闽日极端降水与次生灾害分布特征研究

Study on the distribution characteristics of daily extreme precipitation and secondary disaster in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian province from April to September 1980-2020

  • 摘要: 为揭示湘赣浙闽地区复杂地形下极端降水分布特征及次生灾害的关系,提升该区域灾害预警能力,基于1980—2020年4—9月湘赣浙闽地区国家站降水、2016—2020年4—9月区域气象观测站降水与ERA5再分析资料,采用百分位阈值法分析了日极端降水的阈值、强度、频次及其对总降水的贡献率的时空分布特征,探讨了湘赣浙闽复杂地形下极端降水特征与次生灾害的关联。结果表明:(1)湘赣浙闽地区日极端降水的阈值与强度大值区集中于福建东部沿海、鄱阳湖平原及湘西丘陵,低值区位于湘中盆地与浙闽丘陵北部;6月强度达峰值(鄱阳湖平原单日极值>200 mm),4月最弱。(2)湘赣浙闽地区日极端降水频次呈东南多、西北少的空间分布,山区显著高于平原;日极端降水对总降水贡献率空间分布福建东北沿海最高(>35%),南岭地区最低(<20%);月变化显示,5—6月湘西丘陵与武夷山区贡献率最高,超过40%,8—9月贡献率高值区位于浙闽沿海。(3)湘赣浙闽地区极端降水特征与灾害类型显著相关:高频次-高强度事件易诱发群发性滑坡/泥石流(福建沿海、湘西丘陵),低频次-高强度事件易引发局地山洪(信江河谷)。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the relationship between extreme precipitation distribution and secondary disasters in the complex terrain, and enhance regional disaster warning capabilities, this study analyzed daily extreme precipitation thresholds, intensity, frequency, and their spatiotemporal distribution patterns using percentile threshold methods based on ERA5 reanalysis data from national and regional meteorological stations in the region of Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian regions in April to September from 1980 to 2020. The research further explored the correlation between extreme precipitation features and secondary disasters under complex terrain conditions. The results are as follows. (1) The daily extreme precipitation thresholds and intensity peaks are concentrated in eastern Fujian coastal areas, Poyang Lake Plain, and western Hunan hills, while low-value zones are located in central Hunan Basin and northern Zhejiang-Fujian hills. Intensity peaks (single-day maximum>200 mm in Poyang Lake Plain) occur in June, with April showing the weakest intensity. (2) The daily extreme precipitation frequency exhibits a spatial distribution pattern of higher occurrences in southeastern regions and fewer in northwestern areas, with mountainous regions significantly higher than plains. The contribution rates to total precipitation show maximum (>35%) in northeastern Fujian coastal areas and minimum (<20%) in Nanling region. The monthly variations reveal that June-July sees highest contribution rates (over 40%) in western Hunan hills and Wuyi Mountain Range, while August-September's high contribution zone lies along Zhejiang-Fujian coast. (3) The extreme precipitation characteristics demonstrate significant correlations with disaster types: frequent-high-intensity events tend to trigger mass landslides/mudslides (coastal Fujian and western Hunan hills), whereas low-frequency-high-intensity events are more likely to cause localized flash floods (Xinjiang River Valley).

     

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