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2021年秋季华北降水异常偏多的成因分析

Possible causes for the more precipitation over North China in autumn 2021

  • 摘要: 2021年秋季华北地区降水量自1961年以来同期最多,采用国家级气象站逐日观测降水数据、ERA5再分析数据和NOAA海温资料,对降水异常偏多及成因进行分析。结果表明:(1) 华北区域2021秋季共经历了5次强降水过程,总降水量为1961年以来同期最多,达284 mm,较气候态年平均 (105.5 mm)偏多169.2%。2021年秋季华北地区水汽最大源地为中国东部海域,水汽输送贡献达到41%,远大于气候平均态的21%。(2) 2021年秋季中纬度异常偏强的东北亚高压引导的偏东气流使得来自东海、黄海和西北太平洋水汽输送明显偏强。北半球欧亚大陆表现为一槽一脊环流型特征,华北地区位于低槽后方,北方冷空气活跃且不断影响华北。(3) 弱La Niña事件造成华北区域近地面气压较常年异常偏低,冬季风环流系统迟迟没有建立,夏季风环流系统尚稳定维持,导致异常的偏东气流带来更多的水汽输送,最终造成华北秋季降水异常偏多。

     

    Abstract: In the autumn of 2021, the North China experienced the highest historical precipitation of the same period since 1961. Using daily precipitation data from national meteorological observation stations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and NOAA SST data, the characteristics and impact factors of more precipitation were analyzed. The results show that the North China region experienced a total of 5 heavy rainfall processes in the autumn of 2021, with the total precipitation being the highest in history since 1961, reaching 284 mm, which is 169.2% higher than the average climate (105.5 mm). In the autumn of 2021, the largest source of water vapor in the North China was in the eastern seas of China, with a contribution of 41% to water vapor transport, far exceeding the climate average of 21%. The eastward airflow guided by the abnormally strong Northeast Asian high pressure in the autumn of 2021 resulted in significantly stronger water vapor transport from the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Northwest Pacific. The circulation over the Eurasian high latitude region presented a pattern of one trough and one ridge, while the North China region was located behind the low trough, with active cold air from the north continuously affecting North China. The weak La Niña event caused abnormally low ground pressure in North China, and the winter monsoon circulation system was not yet established. On the contrary, the summer monsoon circulation system remained stable, leading to abnormal southeast winds bringing more water vapor transport and ultimately resulting in abnormally high autumn precipitation in North China.

     

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