高级搜索

福建省降雨致灾因子权重分析及非台风暴雨致灾危险性评估

Analysis of rainfall disaster-causing factors weight and hazard assessment of non-typhoon rainstorms in Fujian Province

  • 摘要: 致灾因子是灾害产生的先决条件,开展降雨致灾因子重要性分析和致灾危险性评估对防范暴雨灾害至关重要。基于福建省1981—2020年66个国家气象站及2010—2020年1 038个省级气象站降水量观测数据,利用相关系数法计算比较了不同季节非台风暴雨和不同时段台风暴雨的致灾因子权重系数,并采用综合指数法开展非台风暴雨致灾危险性评估和检验。结果表明:(1) 强降水范围是各季节非台风暴雨和晚台风暴雨致灾的最主要因素,短历时强降水是夏季暴雨、早台风暴雨和一般台风暴雨致灾的主要因素。(2)1981—2020年福建省非台风暴雨过程的综合危险性以2010年6月14—26日过程最大;空间分布总体呈东西高、中间低,西北内陆和东南沿海分别存在两个较高和高危险区。(3) 利用非台风暴雨致灾危险性评估模型对2010—2020年3次非台风暴雨过程进行精细化评估显示,福建非台风暴雨致灾危险性空间分布与实际灾情基本相符。

     

    Abstract: Disaster-causing factors are the prerequisites for the occurrence of disasters. Importance analysis and hazard assessment of rainfall disaster-causing factors are crucial for preventing rainstorm disasters. Based on precipitation observation data from 66 national meteorological stations from 1981 to 2020 and 1 038 provincial meteorological stations from 2010 to 2020 in Fujian province, the correlation coefficient method was used to calculate and compare the weight coefficients of the rainfall disaster-causing factors of non-typhoon rainstorms in different seasons and typhoon rainstorms in different periods. Then, the comprehensive index method was employed to conduct the hazard assessment and validation of non-typhoon rainstorms. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial extent of heavy precipitation is the most critical factor in causing disasters for non-typhoon rainstorms in all seasons and for late-season typhoon rainstorms. Short-duration intense precipitation is the major factor contributing to summer rainstorms, early typhoon rainstorms and typical typhoon rainstorms. (2) The results of the disaster risk assessment of non-typhoon rainstorms show that the hazard of the non-typhoon rainstorm process from June 14th to 26th in 2010 was the highest. There is an overall spatial with two contiguous high and very high risk areas in the northwest inland and southeast coastal areas respectively. (3) The spatial distributions of disaster risk for three historical non-typhoon rainstorm processes from 2010 to 2020 obtained based on the assessment model are basically consistent with the disaster situation.

     

/

返回文章
返回