高级搜索

青海东部暴雨特征分析及灾害风险评估检验

Analysis of rainstorm characteristics and disaster risk assessment and verification in eastern Qinghai

  • 摘要: 为评估青海东部人口稠密区的暴雨灾害风险程度,提升暴雨灾害防御能力,基于1961—2021年青海东部25个国家气象观测站逐日降雨资料,结合地理信息、遥感和社会经济数据,采用百分位阈值法、指标体系风险评估法、熵权法等方法,分析了青海东部暴雨特征并构建暴雨灾害风险评估模型,最后利用近3 a的暴雨过程实际灾情进行了检验。研究发现:(1) 1961—2021年,青海东部暴雨过程次数、日最大降雨量、过程累计降雨量、过程持续时间均呈增加趋势;(2)青海东部地区暴雨过程强度指数总体呈增加趋势,并在东北部以及南部存在两个高值区;(3)青海东部暴雨灾害风险总体呈东北高、西部低的分布,其中西宁市、大通县、湟源县、湟中区、门源县、互助县、乐都区、民和县为暴雨灾害的高风险区;(4)近3 a检验显示,发生灾情的乡镇72.04%出现在高和较高风险区,仅13.17%出现在暴雨灾害风险较低和低风险区,暴雨灾害风险评估模型较好地反映青海东部暴雨天气致灾的情况。

     

    Abstract: To assess the risk of rainstorm disasters in the densely populated areas of eastern Qinghai and enhance the ability to prevent rainstorm disasters. Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 national meteorological stations in eastern Qinghai from 1961 to 2021, combined with geographic information, remote sensing and socioeconomic data, methods such as the percentile threshold method, index system risk assessment method, and entropy weight method were used to analyze the characteristics of rainstorm weather in eastern Qinghai and construct a rainstorm disaster risk assessment model. Finally, the actual disaster conditions of rainstorm processes in the recent 3 years were used for evaluation and verification. The study found that: (1) From 1961 to 2021, the number of rainstorm processes, daily maximum precipitation, cumulative precipitation in the process, and process duration in eastern Qinghai all showed an increasing trend; (2) The intensity index of rainstorm processes in eastern Qinghai shows an overall increasing trend, with two high-value areas in the northeast and south.; (3) The overall distribution of rainstorm disaster risks in eastern Qinghai is characterized by high risks in the northeast and low risks in the west. Among them, the Xining urban area, Datong County, Huangyuan County, Huangzhong District, Menyuan County, Huzhu County, Ledu District and Minhe County are high-risk areas for rainstorm disasters; (4) The test in the recent 3 years showed that 72.04% of the townships with disaster conditions appeared in high and higher-risk areas, and only 13.17% appeared in lower and low-risk areas of rainstorm disaster risks. The rainstorm disaster risk assessment model well reflected the disaster situation caused by rainstorm weather in eastern Qinghai..

     

/

返回文章
返回