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2016—2023年萍乡市突发性暴雨基本特征和环境条件分析

Analysis of the basic characteristics and environmental conditions of sudden rainstorms in Pingxiang City from 2016 to 2023

  • 摘要: 为揭示萍乡市突发性暴雨的天气学特征,利用2016—2023年萍乡市92个国家和区域气象观测站的降水数据和欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料,采用百分位法计算出各站点的1 h、3 h和6 h突发性暴雨降水阈值,并根据超阈值站次识别出萍乡市5次突发性暴雨事件,同时对比分析其基本特征、环流形势特征和环境场特征。结果表明:(1) 5次突发性暴雨过程分别发生在2016年6月15日、2020年6月5日、2019年6月22日、2022年7月18日和2023年7月23日(以下分别简称“2016.06.15”、“2020.06.05”、“2019.06.22”、“2022.07.18”和“2023.07.23”),其强降水的主要时段集中在凌晨或上午。相较于其他类型的暴雨,突发性暴雨1 h、3 h和6 h降水量超历史极值的站点数更多,1 h、3 h和6 h的最大降水量也更强。突发性暴雨能在3 h或6 h内持续保持较高的降水强度,且3 h和6 h降水量占总降水量的比率较高。(2) 萍乡市大部分突发性暴雨过程主要出现在低层西南急流的风速辐合区中。“2016.06.15”和“2020.06.05”两次过程突发性暴雨的发生和维持更大程度地取决于超强水汽辐合后向上输送以及相对较强的垂直风切变。“2019.06.22”和“2022.07.18”两次过程突发性暴雨的发生主要依赖于不稳定层结的强烈发展以及较强的能量条件。只有“2023.07.23”过程水汽辐合条件,动力抬升条件和不稳定层结条件均集中在700 hPa同一等压面,该过程具备相对较强的能量条件且能同时维持中等强度的水汽辐合后动力抬升条件和中等强度的不稳定条件,进而产生突发性暴雨。(3) 突发性暴雨过程,水汽辐合后向上输送强度相当的条件下,大气层结越不稳定,短时雨强越强。

     

    Abstract: Based on the precipitation data of 92 national and regional meteorological observation stations in Pingxiang City from 2016 to 2023 and the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-5), the synoptic characteristics of sudden rainstorms in Pingxiang City are investigated. The 1-hour, 3-hour, and 6-hour sudden rainstorm precipitation thresholds for each station are investigated in this study. The 1-hour, 3-hour, and 6-hour sudden rainstorm precipitation thresholds for each station are calculated using the percentile method. Five sudden rainstorm events in Pingxiang City are identified according to the number of station times exceeding the thresholds. Meanwhile, the basic characteristics, circulation situation characteristics, and environmental field characteristics are comparatively analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) The five sudden rainstorm processes occurred on June 15, 2016, June 5, 2020, June 22, 2019, July 18, 2022, and July 23, 2023 (referred to as "2016.06.15", "2020.06.05", "2019.06.22", "2022.07.18", and "2023.07.23", respectively), and the main periods of heavy precipitation are concentrated in the early morning or morning. Compared with other types of rainstorms, sudden rainstorms have more stations where the 1-hour, 3-hour, and 6-hour precipitation amounts exceed historical extremes, and the maximum precipitation amounts in 1-hour, 3-hour, and 6-hour are also higher. Sudden rainstorms can maintain high precipitation intensity continuously for 3 or 6 hours. Moreover, the ratio of precipitation in 3 hours and 6 hours to the total precipitation is relatively high. (2) Most of the sudden rainstorm processes in Pingxiang City mainly occur in the wind speed convergence zone of the low-level southwest jet stream. The occurrence and maintenance of the two sudden rainstorm processes on "2016.06.15" and "2020.06.05" were more significantly influenced by the upward transport following extreme water vapor convergence and the relatively strong vertical wind shear. The occurrence of the two sudden rainstorm processes on "2019.06.22" and "2022.07.18" mainly depended on the intense development of unstable atmospheric stratification and strong energy conditions. Only for the process on "2023.07.23", the conditions of water vapor convergence, dynamic lifting, and unstable stratification were all concentrated on the same isobaric surface at 700 hPa. This process exhibited relatively strong energy conditions and could simultaneously maintain moderate-intensity dynamic lifting conditions followed by water vapor convergence and moderate-intensity instability, thereby leading to the occurrence of sudden rainstorms. (3) Under the condition of similar upward transport intensity following water vapor convergence, the more unstable the atmospheric stratification, the stronger the short-term rainfall intensity during the sudden rainstorm process.

     

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