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云南省盐津县暴雨及短时强降水特征分析

Analysis of the characteristics of torrential rain and short-duration heavy rainfall in Yanjin County, Yunnan Province

  • 摘要: 盐津县位于云南省与四川省交界处,暴雨洪涝灾害高发且极易引发泥石流、山体滑坡等次生灾害。本文基于盐津县2013—2022年暴雨洪涝灾害记录、盐津国家气象站1993—2022年的年降水量与暴雨日数资料、2020—2022年盐津县29个区域气象站的小时降水数据,以及盐津国家气象站有分钟雨量观测记录以来(1981—2022年) 11个历时的降水量逐年最大值,采用趋势分析、分层级统计、极值推算等方法,系统分析了盐津县暴雨及短时强降水的时空分布特征并与该县暴雨洪涝灾害的高发期进行对比,同时推算了盐津县暴雨强度公式。结果表明:(1) 暴雨及短时强降水的月际变化与暴雨洪涝灾害发生频次的月际变化高度一致。(2) 近30 a盐津县年均降水量与云南省多年平均降水量接近且无明显变化趋势,暴雨集中于夏季及秋初,春季偶发,冬季无暴雨。(3) 短时强降水高发期为4—9月,并存在显著的夜间高发特征,以小时雨量20~30 mm为主(占67.5%),≥50 mm量级的小时雨量偶发;空间分布上呈不均匀性,高频次站点单点分散,中部地区整体频次较低。(4) 推算得到盐津县100 a一遇的1 h极端降水量为82.3 mm,该结果可为后续城市雨水管网设计流量的确定提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Located at the border of Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces, Yanjin County is highly prone to rainstorm-induced floods, which often trigger secondary disasters such as mudslides and landslides. This study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of torrential rain and short-duration heavy rainfall in Yanjin County, compared them with the high-incidence periods of flood disasters, and derived the rainfall intensity formula, employing methods such as trend analysis, hierarchical statistics, and extreme value estimation. The analysis was based on flood disaster records from 2013 to 2022, annual precipitation, and torrential rain frequency data from the Yanjin National Meteorological Station (1993—2022), hourly precipitation data from 29 regional stations (2020—2022), and annual maximum precipitation values across 11 durations from the station’s minute-level records at the Yanjin National Meteorological Station (1981—2022). The results are as follows. (1) The monthly variations in torrential rain and short-duration heavy rainfall are consistent with those of flood disaster frequency. (2) Over the past 30 years, Yanjin’s average annual precipitation has been similar to Yunnan’s long-term average with no significant trend. The torrential rain processes predominantly occur in summer and early autumn, occasionally occur in spring, and are never observed in winter. (3) Short-duration heavy rainfall events are most frequent from April to September, with a pronounced nocturnal peak, dominated by 20—30 mm·h−1 events (67.5% of cases), while ≥50 mm·h−1events are occasional; spatially, their distribution is uneven, with high-frequency stations scattered sporadically and lower overall frequency in central regions. (4) An extreme 1-hour precipitation of 82.3 mm for a 100-year return period is estimated from the derived rainstorm intensity formula, offering a critical reference for urban stormwater drainage design.

     

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