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2007—2022年辽宁省国家站和省级站降水特征及致灾风险性分析

Analysis of precipitation characteristics and disaster risk at national and provincial meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 2007 to 2022

  • 摘要: 为了解不同精度降水观测资料及致灾风险性的差别,发挥精细降水观测对强降水的预警作用,利用辽宁省61个国家气象观测站(简称国家站)和1 785个省级气象观测站(简称省级站) 2007—2022年逐小时、逐日降水资料,对比研究了两类站点的月及汛期降水量、最大日降水量、暴雨日数及年雨涝指数的分布特征,结果表明:(1) 2007—2022年辽宁省国家站和省级站的月和汛期降水具有较好的一致性,均呈显著相关;汛期降水量均呈增加趋势,省级站的增速快于国家站;两类站点的平均汛期降水量接近,降水极值差异显著,省级站汛期降水量最大值高于国家站。(2)两类站点的最大日降水量极值和平均值的年际变化较为一致,均呈增加趋势;两类站点最大日降水量的空间分布较一致,只是辽宁中部和东部地区省级站比国家站有更多小范围的高值和低值中心。辽宁省8月更容易发生强降水,且日降水极值多出现在省级站,局地性强,极值明显高于国家站。(3)国家站和省级站暴雨日数和年雨涝指数均自西北向东南递增。两类站点的年雨涝指数高值区主要位于丹东和大连东南部地区,易发生由暴雨引发的直接和次生灾害。(4) 国家站由于数量少,空间分辨率较低,容易导致降水事件的极端性被低估,省级站能精细地刻画出辽宁省降水局部区域的细节特征,监测到更多国家站收集不到的强降水事件。

     

    Abstract: In order to understand the differences in precipitation observation data of different precisions and the risk of causing disasters and give full play to the early warning role of fine precipitation observation for heavy precipitation, this study utilized hourly and daily precipitation data from 61 national meteorological stations (abbreviated as national stations) and 1 785 provincial meteorological stations (abbreviated as provincial stations) in Liaoning Province from 2007 to 2022, compared the distribution characteristics of monthly and flood season precipitation, maximum daily precipitation, the number of rainstorm days and annual rain-waterlogging index of the two stations. The main results are as follows. (1) The monthly and flood season precipitation of national stations and provincial stations in Liaoning Province show good consistency and significant correlation from 2007 to 2022. The precipitation in flood season all showed an increasing trend and the increase rate of provincial stations was faster than that of national stations. The average rainfall in flood season of the two types of stations is similar, but significant difference in extreme precipitation, the maximum precipitation in flood season at provincial stations is higher than that at national stations. (2) The interannual variations in the extreme and average values of the maximum daily precipitation at the two types of stations were relatively consistent, showing an increasing trend. The spatial distributions of maximum daily precipitation at the two types of stations are relatively consistent. However, provincial stations in central and eastern Liaoning Province have more high-value and low-value centers of small scale than national stations, heavy precipitation is more likely to occur in Liaoning Province. Most of the maximum daily precipitation extremes occur in the provincial stations, strong locality, which are significantly higher than the national stations. (3) Both the number of rainstorm days and the annual rain-waterlogging index of national and provincial stations increased from northwest to southeast. The high value area of annual rain-waterlogging index of the two types of stations are mainly located in Dandong and the southeast of Dalian, which are prone to direct and secondary disasters caused by rainstorm. (4) Due to the small number of national stations and low spatial resolution, the extremes of precipitation events are likely to be underestimated, and the provincial stations can accurately depict the detailed characteristics of precipitation in the local regions of Liaoning Province, and monitor more extreme precipitation events that can not be collected by national stations.

     

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