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青海高原一次极端降水天气特征及环境条件分析

Analysis of the characteristics and environmental conditions of an extreme rainfall event on Qinghai Plateau

  • 摘要: 2022年8月13日青海发生极端降水天气过程,造成严重的洪涝和山体滑坡等灾害,间接导致“8·18”大通山洪灾害。基于高分辨率多源观测和ERA5再分析资料,利用HYSPLIT4轨迹模式、百分位法和标准化异常度计算,对此次过程的降水特征、天气系统及环境条件等方面结合地形作用进行了诊断分析。结果表明:此次极端降水天气发生在青海东部河谷地区及拉脊山迎风坡,该过程累计雨量大、小时雨强强、持续时间长、极端性显著、致灾严重;西太平洋副热带高压异常偏西偏北、南亚高压异常偏强是极端降水发生的天气尺度环流背景;θse异常偏强3~4σ (σ为气候标准差)、对流不稳定层结深厚、对流有效位能大,为中尺度对流系统和极端降水的发生发展提供了热力条件和不稳定条件;低层中尺度切变线、风速辐合及锋区导致暴雨区700 hPa辐合异常偏强3~4σ,充沛的水汽在暴雨区形成偏强5σ以上的水汽辐合中心,低层强辐合产生强烈的垂直上升运动,触发对流不稳定能量的释放及水汽的抬升凝结,引发极端降水;偏东气流到达拉脊山后受地形阻挡被迫抬升,导致中尺度对流云团不断生成、发展、合并且移动缓慢,使得此次极端降水维持时间较长,累计雨量大。

     

    Abstract: An extreme rainfall event occurred in Qinghai on August 13, 2022, causing severe disasters including floods and landslides, the extreme rainfall also indirectly triggered the deadly flash flood in Datong County on August 18. Based on high-resolution multi-source observational data and ERA5 reanalysis data, this study analyzed the rainfall characteristics, synoptic systems, and environmental conditions of this event, incorporating topographic effects, using the HYSPLIT4 trajectory model, percentile methodand and standardized anomaly calculation. The results show that the extreme rainfall occurred in the eastern valley regions of Qinghai and the windward slope of Laji Mountain, characterized by high cumulative rainfall, intense hourly rainfall, long duration, significant extremeness, and severe disaster-causing impacts; the anomalous westward and northward positioning of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the unusually strong South Asian high were the synoptic-scale circulation backgrounds conducive to the occurrence of extreme rainfall; θse was anomalously strong over 3-4σ, with a deep convective instability structure and strong convective available potential energy, providing thermal and instability conditions for the development of mesoscale convective systems and extreme rainfall; the low-level meso-γ-scale shear line, wind convergence, and frontal zone led to an anomalously strong convergence on 700 hPa in the rainfall region, with a value of 3-4σ above normal, abundant moisture formed a moisture convergence center with a value above 5σ in the rainfall region, the strong convergence on the low level generated intense vertical upward motion, triggering the release of convective instability energy, lifting and condensation of moisture, which induced extreme rainfall; the eastward airflow was forced to ascend after encountering the topographic barrier of Laji Mountain, resulting in the continuous generation, development, merging, and slow movement of mesoscale convective cloud clusters, which contributed to the long duration and high cumulative rainfall of the extreme rainfall.

     

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