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由孤立风暴引发的天津局地一次极端短时强降水过程成因分析

Analysis of the causes of an extreme short-duration heavy rainfall event in Tianjin produced by an isolated storm

  • 摘要: 利用地面自动站观测数据、欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料(ERA5)、天气雷达资料和变分多普勒雷达分析系统 (Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System,VDRAS) 资料等多源观测资料从大尺度环流形势、中尺度对流系统的发生与发展、云微物理尺度三个方面分析了2022年 7 月 3 日天津发生的一次超历史极值的极端短时强降水过程的基本观测特征及成因。结果表明:(1) 大尺度环流形势上来看,降水前的高温、高湿、高能的环境条件配合500 hPa 高空槽前的西南暖湿气流和台风“暹芭”北侧的东南气流形成的偏南气流为此次降水过程提供了有利的水汽和暖湿环境条件。(2) 对流系统中尺度上来看,此次暴雨过程是由上游降水产生的冷池外流、边界层中的东风扰动以及地面辐合线共同触发的。中尺度辐合及其与槽前较强风速的相互作用在经向上形成中尺度次级环流,进一步促进了津南地区垂直运动的发展和维持,进而导致了此次强降水过程的发生与发展。(3) 云微物理尺度上来看,此次强降水过程具有持续且稳定的大雨滴直径和高数浓度的特征,主要表现为“大陆性”对流降水的特征。雨滴谱微物理参量的突变表明此次强降水过程中近地面水汽在津南强烈辐合,大气湿度已经达到饱和甚至过饱和。

     

    Abstract: Based on multi-source observational data, including surface automatic weather station observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5) data, weather radar data, and Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) data, this study analyzes the basic observational characteristics and mechanisms of an extreme short-duration rainfall event in Tianjin on July 3, 2022, which exceeded historical records. The analysis was conducted from three perspectives: large-scale circulation patterns, the initiation and development of mesoscale convective systems, and cloud microphysical scales. The results indicate that: (1) From the large-scale circulation patterns, the pre-precipitation environment was characterized by high temperature, high humidity, and high energy features. These conditions, combined with a southerly airflow—formed by the confluence of southwesterly warm and moist flow preceding the 500 hPa upper-level trough and southeasterly flow north of Typhoon Chaba, provided favorable moisture and warm, moist environmental conditions for the event. (2) From the meso-scale perspective, the rainfall event was jointly triggered by the cold pool outflow from upstream precipitation, an easterly disturbance within the boundary layer, and a surface convergence line. Meso-scale convergence, and its interaction with the strong pre-trough wind speeds, generated a meridional mesoscale secondary circulation. This circulation further promoted the development and maintenance of vertical motion over the Jinnan area, consequently leading to the initiation and intensification of the heavy rainfall event. (3) From the cloud microphysical scale, the event was characterized by sustained and stable large raindrop diameters and high number concentrations, exhibiting features typical of "continental" convective precipitation. Abrupt changes in the raindrop size distribution (DSD) microphysical parameters indicate that during this heavy rainfall event, intense near-surface moisture convergence occurred over Jinnan, causing atmospheric humidity to reach saturation or even supersaturation.

     

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