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华南“11.6”持续性与“13.4”短时极端强降水事件的形成机制对比研究

A comparative study on the formation mechanisms of "11.6" persistent and "13.4" short-term extreme heavy precipitation events in South China

  • 摘要: 基于ERA5再分析资料、中国自动气象站与NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)气候预测中心卫星反演降水资料CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique)融合的逐时降水量网格数据集,从环流背景、水汽输送、涡度收支等方面对比分析了华南沿海地区2011年6月29日极端持续性强降水事件(以下简称“11.6”强降水)与2013年4月25日极端短时强降水事件(以下简称“13.4”强降水)的发生发展机制。结果显示:“11.6”强降水伴随着稳定的低压天气系统,高空由涡旋主导,低空具有稳定的水汽输送带;而“13.4”强降水不具备稳定的天气系统,低空水汽输送少,但由于存在短时的强水汽辐合导致小时降水量大。“11.6”强降水存在更大的正涡度收入,低空急流是低层涡度收入的关键,中层涡旋的生成加强是中层涡度收入的关键,同时两者的正反馈作用也是降水维持的重要因素。

     

    Abstract: Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and hourly gridded precipitation dataset produced by merging China’s automatic weather-station observations with the NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Climate Prediction Center’s CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique) satellite-derived precipitation estimates, this study comparatively analyzes the formation and development mechanisms of the persistent extreme heavy precipitation event on June 29th, 2011 (hereinafter called "11.6" event) and the short-term extreme heavy precipitation on April 25th, 2013 (hereinafter called "13.4" event) along the coastal region of South China. From perspectives including synoptic circulation patterns, moisture transport, and vorticity budget, the results show that the "11.6" event was associated with a stable low-pressure weather system, dominated by an upper-level vortex that provided dynamic lifting and sustained by a steady low-level moisture transport band. In contrast, the "13.4" event lacked a stable synoptic system and exhibited weaker low-level moisture transport. However, it produced intense hourly rainfall due to transient but strong low-level moisture convergence. The "11.6" event featured greater positive vorticity advection, and the low-level jet was crucial for vorticity input in the lower troposphere, while the generation and intensification of mid-level vortices were key to vorticity input in the mid-troposphere. Furthermore, the positive feedback between these two processes played a vital role in sustaining the heavy precipitation.

     

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