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基于FCN算法的甘肃省强对流逐小时预报技术研究

Research on hourly forecast technology of severe convection in Gansu Province based on FCN algorithm

  • 摘要: 强对流天气是一种破坏力极强的灾害性天气,但由于其突发性强且尺度较小,在气象业务工作中仍难以准确地预报,因此亟需一种基于全卷积神经网络的模型来改善上述的不足。本文将2017—2021年地面观测的强对流天气实况、ECMWF数值模式资料作为训练集,2022年作为测试集,采用FCN算法,构建甘肃省冰雹、雷暴大风和短时强降水(以下简称为短强)等三类强对流和非强对流0—12 h内的逐小时天气预报模型,并将模型在2023年实际业务中应用验证。结果表明:(1) 在2022年的训练集中,模型表现良好,强对流天气和和非强对流天气的整体误判率(FNR)仅为16.6%。三类强对流天气的平均临界成功指数(CSI)为25.8%,平均命中率(POD)保持在65.2%以上,且短强的预报效果最好。(2) 在2023年实际业务应用的验证集中,模型对三类强对流天气的平均CSI为24.3%,平均POD为62.6%,平均空报比率(FAR)为71.2%。在2017—2023年的全部数据集上,短强的CSI最高,达到45.5%,雷暴大风和短强的POD均超过了70%,冰雹和雷暴大风的FAR结果相似,都高于77%,短强的平均FAR最低。(3) 逐小时来看,冰雹在第4 h、8 h和10 h表现最好,雷暴大风在第6 h表现最好,短强在第2 h和第4 h的预报效果最好。因此,本研究构建的FCN模型在强对流天气预报方面表现理想,为未来气象业务自动化提供了应用前景。

     

    Abstract: Severe convective weather is a type of weather disaster with extremely destructive power, but due to its suddenness and small scale, it is still difficult to accurately forecast in meteorological business operations. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a model based on Fully Convolutional Networks to improve the above shortcomings.This article uses ground observations of severe convective weather from 2017 to 2021 and ECMWF (the European Center of Medium range weather forecasts) numerical model data as the training set, and 2022 as the test set. The FCN (Fully Convolutional Network) algorithm was adopted to construct three types of severe convective weather forecast models for hail, convective gust, and short-term heavy rainfall within 0-12 hours in Gansu Province. The model was applied in forecast business operations in 2023. The results are as follows. (1) In the training set, the FCN model performed well, with a total false negative rate (FNR) of only 16.6% for severe convective weather and non-severe convective weather. In the test set of 2022, the average critical success index (CSI) of the three types of severe convective weather was 25.8%, and the average probability of detection (POD) remained above 65.2%. Short-term heavy rainfall had the best forecasting effect. (2) In the validation set of forecast business operations in 2023, the average CSI of the three types of severe convective weather was 24.3%, the average POD was 62.6%, and the average false alarm ratio (FAR) was 71.2%. For all data sets, the CSI of short-term heavy rainfall was the highest, reaching 45.5%. At the same time, the POD of short-term heavy rainfall and convective gust exceeded 70%, while the FAR results of hail and convective gust were similar, both exceeding 77%, and the average FAR of short-term heavy rainfall was the lowest. (3) For hourly data, hail performed best at hours 4, 8, and 10, convective gust performed best at hour 6, and short-term heavy rainfall performed best at hours 2 and 4. Therefore, the FCN model constructed in this study performs well in forecasting severe weather, providing a broad application prospect for future automation of meteorological business.

     

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