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盘锦市长历时暴雨雨型分型、识别及特征分析

The classification, idntification and characteristic analysis of long-duration rainstorm patterns in Panjin

  • 摘要: 暴雨雨型对于城市防洪排涝设计具有重要意义,基于1972—2023年盘锦市盘山国家气象站分钟降雨观测资料、东亚地面及高空天气形势资料,首先分析了盘锦市长历时(持续时间6~24 h)暴雨的气候及天气特征,然后利用模糊识别法结合目估识别法将长历时暴雨分为7种雨型,最后利用1984—2023年历史灾情资料分析不同暴雨雨型的灾害特征。结果表明:(1) 盘锦市长历时暴雨出现年代不均,21世纪00年代以及20世纪90年代暴雨场次较少。长历时暴雨持续时间以6~10 h居多,超过18 h的持续性降雨较少。降雨量在90~110 mm之间的暴雨场次最多。(2) 盘锦市长历时暴雨天气形势可分为北上气旋型(42.3%)、冷锋型(20.4%)、大型气旋型(28.7%)和东北冷涡型(8.6%)。(3)将盘锦市长历时暴雨分为7类雨型,其中单峰型最多(53.1%),其次是均匀型暴雨(25.0%),双峰型暴雨(21.9%)。单峰型暴雨峰值多位于后期、中期,双峰型暴雨峰值多出现在前部和后部、前部和中部。 (4)灾情数据结合暴雨雨型分析表明,中部单峰(Ⅳ)、均匀(Ⅲ)型长历时暴雨易导致盘锦市严重内涝及暴雨洪涝,在防洪排涝时应引起重视。

     

    Abstract: The research about the rainstorm patterns is significant for the design of urban flood control and drainage. Firstly, the climatic and weather characteristics of long-duration rainstorms (6~24 h) were analyzed, and then long-duration rainstorms were classified to 7 patterns using the fuzzy identification method and objective identification method based on the 1-minute interval rainfall data of Panjin observatory, daily surface and upper synoptic situations data of East Asia at 8 and 20 from 1972 to 2023. Lastly, the characteristics of rainstorm disasters were analyzed too used disaster situation data from 1984 to 2023. The results showed that: (1) Long-duration rainstorms occured unevenly in different ages, and there were fewer heavy rainfalls in the first decade of the 21st of the 20th century. The duration of long-duration rainstorms typically spanned between 6~10 hours, and the events of more than 18 hours were relatively rare. Long-duration rainstorms with precipitation between 90~110 mm were the most frequent. (2) The synoptic situations of long-duration rainstorms could be classified as the northward-moving cyclones (42.3%), cold fronts (20.4%), large cyclones (28.7%) and Northeast cold vortexes (8.6%). (3) The long-duration rainstorms in Panjin can be divided into seven types of rainstorm patterns. The proportions of unimodal rainstorms, uniform rainstorms and bimodal long-duration rainstorms were 53.1%, 25.0% and 21.9% separately. The peaks of the most single-peak rainstorms were in the late and middle periods, the peaks of the most bimodal rainstorms were in the front and rear, in the front and middle. (4) IV (single-peak in the middle) and III (uniform) long-duration rainstorms easily accounted for severe waterlogging and flooding, and should be paid much more attention in flood control and drainage based on the analysis of disaster situation data combined rainstorm patterns in Panjin .

     

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