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豫南汛期暖区暴雨概念模型与环境条件参量分析

Analysis on the conceptual model and environmental condition parameters of warm-sector rainstorms over southern Henan in flood season

  • 摘要: 暖区暴雨是豫南汛期的主要灾害性天气之一,其发生发展机制复杂且区域性特征明显。为揭示豫南暖区暴雨的天气学特征,利用常规高空、地面观测和欧洲中心大气再分析(ERA-5)等资料,对2011—2020年豫南汛期5—9月暖区暴雨的天气形势进行中尺度分析和归纳,并利用百分位法提炼出不同环流型暖区暴雨的环境条件参量阈值,研究结果表明:(1) 暖区暴雨是豫南汛期重要的降水过程,2011—2020年汛期5—9月共识别出36个暖区暴雨日,约占豫南暴雨日总数的53%;(2) 豫南暖区暴雨归纳为四类天气学概念模型:暖切变型、切变-副高相互作用型、强西南急流型和冷锋型,以切变-副高相互作用型为主,冷锋型最少,各类型暴雨站点频次分布与主要影响系统位置密切相关;(3) 当大气环境条件满足整层大气水汽含量充沛、中等及以上强度的深层垂直风切变、适当强度的大气不稳定能量和低空偏南急流时,有利于暖区暴雨发生,其中850 hPa比湿、500 hPa温度露点差、K指数和低层最大偏南风速对豫南四类暖区暴雨预报具有一定指示意义。

     

    Abstract: The warm-sector rainstorm is one of the major weather disasters in southern Henan in flood season, and it is complex in developing mechanisms and has obvious regional characteristics. Based on the station observation data, the sounding data and the European central atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-5), the synoptic characteristics of warm-sector rainstorms over southern Henan are investigated by the mesoscale analysis and induction for the weather condition of warm-sector rainstorms from May to September in flood season during 2011—2020. Accordingly, the thresholds of environmental condition parameters related to warm-sector rainstorms with different circulation patterns are extracted by percentile method. The results are shown as follows: (1) The warm-sector rainstorm is an important component of the flood season in southern Henan, and 36 warm-sector rainstorm days are identified from May to September during 2011—2020, accounting for about 53% of the total heavy precipitation days. (2) Warm-sector heavy rainfalls are categorized into four types of synoptic conceptual models in southern Henan, including warm shear line, shear-subtropical high, strong southwest jet and cold front types, in which the shear-subtropical high type occurs most frequently, and the cold front type is the least. The frequency distribution of warm-sector rainstorms in four types is closely related to the location of their major weather systems. (3) Conditions with abundant water vapor in the whole layer, relatively strong deep vertical wind shear, moderate instability energy of atmosphere and low-level southerly jet are conducive to generate warm-sector rainstorms in southern Henan. The specific humidity at 850 hPa, the depression of the dew point at 500 hPa, and the maximum southerly wind speed at the lower level can be applied to indicate the forecast of warm-sector rainstorms over southern Henan.

     

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